埃博拉病毒传播模型的丰富时空动态:复合发病率函数和与密度无关的治疗方法

IF 1.8 3区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED
Calvin Tadmon , Jacques Ndé Kengne
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在这项工作中,我们关注埃博拉病毒疾病动态的数学建模和分析。首先,我们设计并分析了一个非线性常微分方程模型,该模型综合了直接和间接传播途径、与密度无关的治疗方法以及复合非线性发病率函数。分析开始时,我们首先证明了一个唯一的有界正解的全局存在性。然后,我们计算了基本繁殖数,该数依赖于模型的全局动态。我们精确地证明了唯一的无病均衡和唯一的地方病均衡的存在,并证明了它们在基本繁殖数的适当假设下的全局稳定性。此外,我们还对基本繁殖数进行了全局敏感性分析,以评估模型预测的可变性。我们发现,预测结果与 2014 年在利比里亚和塞拉利昂爆发的疫情密切吻合。其次,为了理解疾病在空间均质环境中的传播动态,我们通过加入易感个体和非住院感染个体的菲克扩散,将第一个模型扩展为部分退化的反应扩散系统,从而丰富了该模型。我们分别证明了当基本繁殖数低于 1 和高于 1 时,无病平衡的全局稳定性和均匀持续性。最后,我们进行了数值模拟,以说明所获得的一些理论结果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Enriched spatiotemporal dynamics of a model of Ebola transmission with a composite incidence function and density-independent treatment

In this work, we are concerned with the mathematical modeling and analysis of Ebola virus disease dynamics. Firstly, we design and analyze a nonlinear ordinary differential equations model integrating both direct and indirect transmission pathways with density-independent treatment and a composite nonlinear incidence function. We begin the analysis by proving the global existence of a unique positive and bounded solution. Then we compute the basic reproduction number on which relies the global dynamics of the model. We precisely show the existence of a unique disease-free equilibrium and that of a unique endemic equilibrium, and prove their global stability under appropriate assumptions on the basic reproduction number. Moreover, we perform the global sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number to assess the variability in the model predictions. We find that the forecasts closely agree with the 2014 outbreaks of the disease in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Secondly, we enrich this first model by extending it to a partially degenerate reaction–diffusion system via the inclusion of Fickian diffusion for susceptible and non-hospitalized infectious individuals in order to understand the dynamics of the disease transmission in a spatially homogeneous environment. We prove the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the uniform persistence when the basic reproduction number lies below and above one, respectively. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate some theoretical results obtained.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.80
自引率
5.00%
发文量
176
审稿时长
59 days
期刊介绍: Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications welcomes all research articles of the highest quality with special emphasis on applying techniques of nonlinear analysis to model and to treat nonlinear phenomena with which nature confronts us. Coverage of applications includes any branch of science and technology such as solid and fluid mechanics, material science, mathematical biology and chemistry, control theory, and inverse problems. The aim of Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications is to publish articles which are predominantly devoted to employing methods and techniques from analysis, including partial differential equations, functional analysis, dynamical systems and evolution equations, calculus of variations, and bifurcations theory.
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