聪明资金相信热门手气吗？来自每日幻想棒球的证据

IF 2.3 2区文学 Q2 PSYCHOLOGY, CLINICAL

American Behavioral Scientist Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI:10.1177/00027642241235828

Jeremy M. Losak, Andrew P. Weinbach, Rodney J. Paul

{"title":"聪明资金相信热门手气吗？来自每日幻想棒球的证据","authors":"Jeremy M. Losak, Andrew P. Weinbach, Rodney J. Paul","doi":"10.1177/00027642241235828","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The behavior of informed traders, or “smart money,” in sports betting markets has long been of interest to researchers. In this paper, we focus specifically on the behavior of smart money in Major League Baseball (MLB) daily fantasy sports (DFS) contests to determine whether they avoid cognitive-behavioral biases to increase their expected earnings. Specifically, we investigate whether smart money avoids the hot hand bias, where individuals tend to overestimate the likelihood of success for players on a hot streak. Using a dataset of MLB DFS contests, we find that winning lineups have lower usage rates for players exhibiting the hot hand compared to losing lineups. This suggests that smart money identifies and fades the hot hand strategy to increase their expected earnings.","PeriodicalId":48360,"journal":{"name":"American Behavioral Scientist","volume":"107 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Does Smart Money Believe in the Hot Hand? Evidence From Daily Fantasy Baseball\",\"authors\":\"Jeremy M. Losak, Andrew P. Weinbach, Rodney J. Paul\",\"doi\":\"10.1177/00027642241235828\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The behavior of informed traders, or “smart money,” in sports betting markets has long been of interest to researchers. In this paper, we focus specifically on the behavior of smart money in Major League Baseball (MLB) daily fantasy sports (DFS) contests to determine whether they avoid cognitive-behavioral biases to increase their expected earnings. Specifically, we investigate whether smart money avoids the hot hand bias, where individuals tend to overestimate the likelihood of success for players on a hot streak. Using a dataset of MLB DFS contests, we find that winning lineups have lower usage rates for players exhibiting the hot hand compared to losing lineups. This suggests that smart money identifies and fades the hot hand strategy to increase their expected earnings.\",\"PeriodicalId\":48360,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"American Behavioral Scientist\",\"volume\":\"107 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-03-13\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"American Behavioral Scientist\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1177/00027642241235828\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"文学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"PSYCHOLOGY, CLINICAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"American Behavioral Scientist","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00027642241235828","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"文学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"PSYCHOLOGY, CLINICAL","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

长期以来，研究人员一直对体育博彩市场中的知情交易者或 "聪明资金 "的行为感兴趣。在本文中，我们特别关注聪明资金在美国职业棒球大联盟（MLB）每日幻想体育（DFS）比赛中的行为，以确定他们是否避免了认知行为偏差，从而提高了预期收益。具体来说，我们研究聪明资金是否避免了 "热手偏差"，即个人倾向于高估连胜球员的成功可能性。通过使用 MLB DFS 竞赛数据集，我们发现与输球阵容相比，赢球阵容中表现出热手的球员使用率较低。这表明，聪明的资金会识别并淡化手感火热的策略，以提高他们的预期收益。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Does Smart Money Believe in the Hot Hand? Evidence From Daily Fantasy Baseball

The behavior of informed traders, or “smart money,” in sports betting markets has long been of interest to researchers. In this paper, we focus specifically on the behavior of smart money in Major League Baseball (MLB) daily fantasy sports (DFS) contests to determine whether they avoid cognitive-behavioral biases to increase their expected earnings. Specifically, we investigate whether smart money avoids the hot hand bias, where individuals tend to overestimate the likelihood of success for players on a hot streak. Using a dataset of MLB DFS contests, we find that winning lineups have lower usage rates for players exhibiting the hot hand compared to losing lineups. This suggests that smart money identifies and fades the hot hand strategy to increase their expected earnings.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

American Behavioral Scientist Multiple-

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

3.10%

发文量

190

期刊介绍： American Behavioral Scientist has been a valuable source of information for scholars, researchers, professionals, and students, providing in-depth perspectives on intriguing contemporary topics throughout the social and behavioral sciences. Each issue offers comprehensive analysis of a single topic, examining such important and diverse arenas as sociology, international and U.S. politics, behavioral sciences, communication and media, economics, education, ethnic and racial studies, terrorism, and public service. The journal"s interdisciplinary approach stimulates creativity and occasionally, controversy within the emerging frontiers of the social sciences, exploring the critical issues that affect our world and challenge our thinking.