提高企业停产环境保护的效率:基于高时空分辨率数据的代理建模方法

IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Qi Zhou , Shen Qu , Miaomiao Liu , Jianxun Yang , Jia Zhou , Yunlei She , Zhouyi Liu , Jun Bi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

自上而下的环境政策旨在降低环境风险,但不可避免地会因企业进入或退出市场而导致经济损失。本研究开发了一个基于动态代理的通用供应链模型,以实现降低环境风险与经济可持续性之间的权衡。该模型用于对企业运营的动态变化及其对供应链网络的连锁效应进行高分辨率的日常模拟。它包括生产、消费和运输代理,将经济特征归属于供应链的各个组成部分,并捕捉它们之间的相互作用。它还考虑了对日常外部冲击的适应性反应,并复制了现实中的企业行为。本研究结合 18 916 家化工企业的高时空分辨率企业级数据,调查了一项导致 1 800 家化工企业在三年内关闭的环境政策对经济和环境的影响。研究结果显示,经济损失高达 258 亿美元,从 238 亿美元到 318 亿美元不等。值得注意的是,80% 以上的损失归因于供应链传播。反事实分析表明,实施交错停产战略可避免 18.8% 的供应链损失,这凸显了逐步实施政策以防止供应链突然中断的重要性。此外,研究还强调了多目标政策设计在减少经济损失(约 29%)和环境风险(约 40%)方面的有效性,从而大大提高了环境政策的效率。高分辨率模拟为政策设计者提供了宝贵的见解,帮助他们制定交错实施和多目标的战略,以减少供应链损失和环境风险,确保未来的可持续发展。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Enhancing the Efficiency of Enterprise Shutdowns for Environmental Protection: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach with High Spatial–Temporal Resolution Data
Top-down environmental policies aim to mitigate environmental risks but inevitably lead to economic losses due to the market entry or exit of enterprises. This study developed a universal dynamic agent-based supply chain model to achieve tradeoffs between environmental risk reduction and economic sustainability. The model was used to conduct high-resolution daily simulations of the dynamic shifts in enterprise operations and their cascading effects on supply chain networks. It includes production, consumption, and transportation agents, attributing economic features to supply chain components and capturing their interactions. It also accounts for adaptive responses to daily external shocks and replicates realistic firm behaviors. By coupling high spatial–temporal resolution firm-level data from 18 916 chemical enterprises, this study investigates the economic and environmental impacts of an environmental policy resulting in the closure of 1800 chemical enterprises over three years. The results revealed a significant economic loss of 25.8 billion USD, ranging from 23.8 billion to 31.8 billion USD. Notably, over 80% of this loss was attributed to supply chain propagation. Counterfactual analyses indicated that implementing a staggered shutdown strategy prevented 18.8% of supply chain losses, highlighting the importance of a gradual policy implementation to prevent abrupt supply chain disruptions. Furthermore, the study highlights the effectiveness of a multi-objective policy design in reducing economic losses (about 29%) and environmental risks (about 40%), substantially enhancing the efficiency of the environmental policy. The high-resolution simulations provide valuable insights for policy designers to formulate strategies with staggered implementation and multiple objectives to mitigate supply chain losses and environmental risks and ensure a sustainable future.
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来源期刊
Engineering
Engineering Environmental Science-Environmental Engineering
自引率
1.60%
发文量
335
审稿时长
35 days
期刊介绍: Engineering, an international open-access journal initiated by the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE) in 2015, serves as a distinguished platform for disseminating cutting-edge advancements in engineering R&D, sharing major research outputs, and highlighting key achievements worldwide. The journal's objectives encompass reporting progress in engineering science, fostering discussions on hot topics, addressing areas of interest, challenges, and prospects in engineering development, while considering human and environmental well-being and ethics in engineering. It aims to inspire breakthroughs and innovations with profound economic and social significance, propelling them to advanced international standards and transforming them into a new productive force. Ultimately, this endeavor seeks to bring about positive changes globally, benefit humanity, and shape a new future.
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