农业用水、经济增长和粮食安全之间的动态关系

Water Supply Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI:10.2166/ws.2024.025
Fang Zhou
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引用次数: 0

摘要

水、能源和粮食(WEF)是以农业为基础的干旱地区经济发展的重要战略资源。分析有限资源管理中的发展指标,以实现时间尺度上的可持续发展,是本研究的基本目标之一。因此,本研究建立了一个系统动力学模型来分析水环境基金系统的资源流动关系,以实现资源的可持续发展。首先,创建了世界环境基金资源的子系统,并以 10 年为时间范围,以逻辑循环的形式形成了它们之间的动态关系。考虑到 7 年(从 2015 年到 2022 年)的演变情况,对 3 年(从 2023 年到 2025 年)进行了预测。结果表明,中国水资源开发率的降低与农业生产力的提高相互作用,自动改善了能源消耗和关联指数。建议在中国的规划中,以水资源为重点,实现世界环境基金之间的动态平衡。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Dynamic nexus between agricultural water consumption, economic growth and food security
Water, energy and food (WEF) are important strategic resources for economic development in arid agriculture-based regions. Analyzing development indicators in the management of limited resources to achieve sustainability on a time scale is one of the basic goals of this research. Therefore, a system dynamics model was developed to analyze the WEF system resource flow relationship to achieve sustainable resource development. First, the subsystems of WEF resources were created and their dynamic relationship was formed in the form of a logical loop in a 10-year time frame. The evolution of 7 years (from 2015 to 2022) was taken into consideration to predict the 3-year period (from 2023 to 2025). The results showed that the reduction of water resources exploitation rate in China in interaction with agricultural productivity has automatically improved energy consumption and the nexus index. In China, a dynamic balance between WEF with a focus on water is recommended for planning.
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