出发时间选择和制导系统建模框架

IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Navid Khademi , Hamed Kharrazi , Anthony Chen , Krisada Chaiyasarn , Seghir Zerguini
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引用次数: 0

摘要

出发时间选择是旅行行为的一个关键组成部分,直接影响旅行需求的时空分布。本文试图建立一个模型框架,用于选择出行成本最小的出发时间。为此,本文提出了一个用于生成出发时间建议的建模框架,并将其应用于实际的通勤出行中。该方法是对旅行时间不可靠的出发时间选择模型的扩展。考虑了两种情况。第一种情况是当旅行时间的平均值随时间变化但方差不变时,计算最佳出发时间。在这种情况下,出发时间选择问题就有了精确的解决方案。在第二种情况下,平均值和方差都随时间变化。我们提出了一个数值解,并证明数值解的序列是收缩的,对于任何初始猜测都可以得到一个唯一的固定点。我们将这两种方法应用于一个交通运营商的出发时间规划问题,该运营商在一个密集的网络中提供重复的强制性行程。案例研究为出发时间选择分析提供了两个启示。首先,假设高峰时段的旅行时间方差不变会导致最佳出发时间出现偏差。然而,这一假设为非高峰时段提供了可信的结果。其次,依靠个人判断的旅客与根据系统建议做出决定的旅客的旅行成本可能大不相同。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Departure time choices and a modeling framework for a guidance system

Departure time choice is a key component of travel behavior that directly influences the spatial and temporal distribution of travel demand. This paper tries to develop a modeling framework for choosing the departure time that minimizes travel costs. In this regard, a modeling framework for generating departure time recommendations is proposed and applied to real commuting trips. The methodology is an extension of the departure time choice model with unreliable travel time. Two cases are considered. The first calculates the optimal time of departure when the mean of the travel time varies by time of day but the variance is constant. An exact solution to the departure time choice problem is provided for this case. In the second case, both the mean and variance vary with the time of day. A numerical solution is proposed; it is proved that the sequence of the numerical solution is contractive with a unique fixed point obtainable for any initial guess. We apply both to the departure time planning problem for a transportation operator that offers repetitive mandatory trips on a dense network. The case study offers two insights into departure time choice analyses. First, the assumption that the travel time variance at peak hours is constant induces biases for the optimal departure time. However, this assumption provides plausible results for the off-peak period. Second, travelers relying on personal judgment may have significantly different costs of travel than passengers making their decisions based on the system's recommendations.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
31
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