个人和社会决策中的延迟风险

IF 2.5 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Psychology Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI:10.1016/j.joep.2024.102710

Asri Özgümüs , Holger A. Rau , Stefan T. Trautmann

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文研究了时间距离对个人和社会风险的影响，检验了构思水平理论。我们诱导受试者对有风险和不明确的彩票进行 WTP，并改变解决不确定性的时间（立即与两周后）。受试者对中奖机会的 WTP 值低于对安全彩票的 WTP 值。在模棱两可的情况下，这种差距会随着时间距离的增加而减小。受试者厌恶模糊性，这在未来处理低概率彩票时变得不那么明显。在信任博弈中，我们研究了时间距离对社会风险的影响。时间距离会降低信任度，因为信任者会正确地预期，当受托人在未来做出决定时，互惠程度会降低。

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Delayed risk in individual and social decisions

This paper studies temporal-distance effects on individual and social risks, testing Construal Level Theory. We elicit WTPs for risky and ambiguous lotteries and vary the timing (immediately vs. in two weeks) when the uncertainty is resolved. Subjects have lower WTPs for longshots than for safer lotteries. Under ambiguity, this gap decreases with temporal distance. Subjects are ambiguity averse, which becomes less pronounced when low-probability lotteries are processed in the future. In a trust game, we study temporal-distance effects on social risks. Time distance lowers trust as trustors correctly anticipate that reciprocity is lower when trustees decide in the future.

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic Psychology Multiple-

CiteScore

5.20

自引率

31.40%

发文量

审稿时长

63 days

期刊介绍： The Journal aims to present research that will improve understanding of behavioral, in particular psychological, aspects of economic phenomena and processes. The Journal seeks to be a channel for the increased interest in using behavioral science methods for the study of economic behavior, and so to contribute to better solutions of societal problems, by stimulating new approaches and new theorizing about economic affairs. Economic psychology as a discipline studies the psychological mechanisms that underlie economic behavior. It deals with preferences, judgments, choices, economic interaction, and factors influencing these, as well as the consequences of judgements and decisions for economic processes and phenomena. This includes the impact of economic institutions upon human behavior and well-being. Studies in economic psychology may relate to different levels of aggregation, from the household and the individual consumer to the macro level of whole nations. Economic behavior in connection with inflation, unemployment, taxation, economic development, as well as consumer information and economic behavior in the market place are thus among the fields of interest. The journal also encourages submissions dealing with social interaction in economic contexts, like bargaining, negotiation, or group decision-making. The Journal of Economic Psychology contains: (a) novel reports of empirical (including: experimental) research on economic behavior; (b) replications studies; (c) assessments of the state of the art in economic psychology; (d) articles providing a theoretical perspective or a frame of reference for the study of economic behavior; (e) articles explaining the implications of theoretical developments for practical applications; (f) book reviews; (g) announcements of meetings, conferences and seminars.