为适应当地气候变化的沿海淹没建模:马尔凯大区(意大利中部)案例

IF 3.3 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
A. Baldoni, Lorenzo Melito, Francesco Marini, Gaia Galassi, Patrizia Giacomin, Giorgio Filomena, Natalino Barbizzi, Carlo Lorenzoni, Maurizio Brocchini
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化正在加剧海平面上升和风暴对沿岸系统的影响,影响海岸线的形态,冲击沿岸社区和生态系统。必须获得足够规模的信息,以确定有效的适应措施。这对于像北亚得里亚海沿岸地区这样既容易受到气候变化影响又社会经济高度发展的地区具有重要意义。为此,这项工作采用了两种不同的方法来研究马尔凯大区的海水向内陆的渗透情况:(a)对整个马尔凯海岸线采用简单的 "浴缸 "法,以突出可能容易发生强烈淹没的地区;(b)对两个测试点采用更精确的数值模型,以详细了解淹没周边地区的情况。这两种方法都采用了政府间气候变化专门委员会和哥白尼气候变化服务机构通过预测到 2070 年的 RCP8.5 排放情景提供的强迫条件。结果表明,100 年一遇的暴风雨将导致海滩和沿岸基础设施被淹没,并影响港口设施和城区。该模型获得的信息已被纳入《地区适应气候变化计划》,以确定具体的适应措施。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modeling coastal inundation for adaptation to climate change at local scale: the case of Marche Region (central Italy)
Climate change is raising sea level rise and storminess effects on coastal systems, affecting the morphology of coastlines and impacting coastal communities and ecosystems. It is essential to gain information at an adequate scale to identify effective adaptation measures. This is of major importance in areas combining high vulnerability to climate change with high socio-economic development, like the Northern Adriatic coastal area. To this aim, in this work two different approaches have been applied to investigate inland penetration of sea water along the Marche Region: (a) a simple “bathtub” method applied to the entire Marche coastline, to highlight areas likely prone to intense inundation; (b) a more accurate numerical model applied to two test sites, to gain detailed knowledge of inundation perimeters. Both approaches have been applied with forcing conditions provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Copernicus Climate Change Service through the RCP8.5 emission scenario projected to 2070. Results showed that a 100-year return period sea storm would cause the inundation of beaches and infrastructures located along the coast, as well as affecting harbor facilities and urban areas. Information obtained with the model has been integrated in the Regional Plan for Adaptation to climate change to define specific adaptation measures.
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Climate
Frontiers in Climate Environmental Science-Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
233
审稿时长
15 weeks
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