评估作为预测因素的犯罪历史:瑞典马尔默暴力和财产犯罪热点探索

IF 1.4 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY
M. Doyle, Manne Gerell
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目标:在预测不同的暴力犯罪和财产犯罪时,评估单独或综合使用先前犯罪、地点属性、环境人口、社区结构和社会特征的预测准确性。方法:使用多层次负二叉回归法,以 50 米网格单元为单位,对下一年的犯罪情况进行预测。针对所有犯罪生成器和社区特征的组合,解释发生率比(IRR)、预测准确指数(PAI)和预测有效指数(PEI*)。本研究部分测试了风险地形建模技术的粗略版本。研究结果在过去曾经发生过犯罪的地方,未来发生犯罪的风险较高。有利于犯罪的特征聚集的地方,犯罪风险也更高。社区结构特征和环境人口对某些犯罪类型非常重要。从内部收益率的角度来看,结合变量可以提高大多数犯罪类型的准确性。考虑到地理区域,对于大多数犯罪类型和大多数热点截断值,犯罪历史与地方和社区特征相结合与单独使用犯罪历史的准确性相似。结论在试图准确预测犯罪时,犯罪历史、地点和邻里层面的属性都很重要,长期而言,在微观地点也是如此。不过,仅计算过去的犯罪率仍然非常有效。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessing Crime History as a Predictor: Exploring Hotspots of Violent and Property Crime in Malmö, Sweden
Objectives: Assessing the predictive accuracy of using prior crime, place attributes, ambient population, community structural, and social characteristics, in isolation and combined when forecasting different violent and property crimes. Method: Using multilevel negative binomial regression, crime is forecasted into the subsequent year, in 50-m grid-cells. Incidence rate ratio (IRR), Prediction Accuracy Index (PAI), and Prediction Efficacy Index (PEI*) are interpreted for all combined crime generators and community characteristics. This study is partially a test of a crude version of the Risk Terrain Modeling technique. Results: Where crime has been in the past, the risk for future crime is higher. Where characteristics conducive to crime congregate, the risk for crime is higher. Community structural characteristics and ambient population are important for some crime types. Combining variables increases the accuracy for most crime types, looking at the IRR. Taking the geographical area into account, crime history in combination with both place- and neighborhood characteristics reaches similar accuracy as crime history alone for most crime types and most hotspot cutoffs. Conclusions: Crime history, place-, and neighborhood-level attributes are all important when trying to accurately forecast crime, long-term at the micro-place. Only counting past crimes, however, still does a really good job.
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来源期刊
International Criminal Justice Review
International Criminal Justice Review CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY-
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
6.20%
发文量
16
期刊介绍: International Criminal Justice Review is a scholarly journal dedicated to presenting system wide trends and problems on crime and justice throughout the world. Articles may focus on a single country or compare issues affecting two or more countries. Both qualitative and quantitative pieces are encouraged, providing they adhere to standards of quality scholarship. Manuscripts may emphasize either contemporary or historical topics. As a peer-reviewed journal, we encourage the submission of articles, research notes, and commentaries that focus on crime and broadly defined justice-related topics in an international and/or comparative context.
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