The paradox of pandemic mitigation? Moderating role of pandemic severity on the impact of social distancing policies: a cultural value perspective.

Background: Social distancing policies were of utmost importance during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. These policies aimed to mitigate the severity of local outbreaks by altering public behavior. However, if the severity of the pandemic reduces, the impact of these policies on actual behavior may decrease. This study aims to examine, from a global perspective, whether the impact of social distancing policies on actual mobility is moderated by local pandemic severity and whether this moderating effect varies across cultural value contexts.

Methods: We combined multiple publicly available global datasets for structural equation model analysis. 17,513 rows of data from 57 countries included in all databases were analyzed. Multilevel moderated moderation models were constructed to test the hypotheses.

Results: More stringent policies in a region mean less regional mobility (β = -0.572, p < 0.001). However, the severity of local outbreaks negatively moderated this effect (β = -0.114, p < 0.001). When the pandemic was not severe, the influence of policy intensity on mobility weakened. Furthermore, based on Schwartz's cultural values theory, cultural values of autonomy (β = -0.109, p = 0.011), and egalitarianism (β = -0.108, p = 0.019) reinforced the moderating effect of pandemic severity. On the other hand, cultural values of embeddedness (β = 0.119, p = 0.006) and hierarchy (β = 0.096, p = 0.029) attenuated the moderating effect.

Conclusions: Social distancing policies aim to reduce the severity of local pandemics; however, the findings reveal that mitigating local pandemics may reduce their impact. Future policymakers should be alert to this phenomenon and introduce appropriate incentives to respond. The results also show that the moderating role of pandemic severity varies across cultures. When policies are promoted to deal with global crises, policymakers must seriously consider the resistance and potential incentives of cultural values.