Import Policy Uncertainty and Innovation

The Chinese government has emphasized innovation as the primary driving force for economic development in the new era. This paper studies the effect of import policy uncertainty (IPU) on the innovation activity of Chinese manufacturing firms. It establishes a simple model to show that the presence of IPU encourages innovation and that a reduction in IPU discourages innovation. It distinguishes the almost unnoticed IPU reduction from tariff reduction on China's WTO accession and develops a novel difference-in-differences specification that identifies the negative effect of IPU reduction on innovation using updated data for Chinese manufacturing and patent filings. The result holds after a battery of identification assumptions and robustness checks are considered. The import channel explains about two thirds of the effect of IPU on innovation, but not all of the effect. Finally, this paper examines the effect across firms of different levels of productivity and ownership types and patents of different categories.