这么多年过去了,仍在盲目飞行:美联储对非观测变量的持续试验

Q2 Social Sciences
D. Papadimitriou, L. R. Wray
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引用次数: 3

摘要

1994 年,我们研究了美联储放弃货币目标,转而采用 "即将发生通货膨胀的预兆"(Papadimitriou - Wray 1994)。三十年后的今天,美联储在寻求稳定物价目标的过程中,仍在摸索不可观测的通胀指标。在接下来的文章中,我们将考察美联储在过去三十年中的思想和实践的演变,在这三十年中,美联储越来越多地使用不可观察的指标来预测通胀,使用不可观察的工具来对抗通胀。我们将表明,美联储自己的成员和研究人员也提出了我们的批评。此外,我们认为,美联储对通胀的控制力远不如人们想象的那么强,最坏的情况是,美联储可能把整个对抗通胀的战略弄反了。最后,我们对最新一轮加息进行了评估。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Still flying blind after all these years: The Federal Reserve's continuing experiments with unobservables
In 1994, we examined the Fed's abandonment of monetary targets in favor of “omens of impending inflation” (Papadimitriou – Wray 1994). Here we are, three decades later, and the Fed is still fumbling around with unobservable indicators of inflation in its quest to target stable prices. In what follows, we examine the evolution of the Fed's thought and practice over the past three decades, a period in which the Fed has increasingly turned to unobservable indicators that are supposed to predict inflation and unobservable tools that are supposed to fight inflation. We will show that our criticisms have also been raised by the Fed's own members and research staff. Moreover, we suggest that the Fed has far less control over inflation than is presumed, and, at worst, might have the whole inflation-fighting strategy backwards. We conclude with an assessment of the latest round of rate hikes.
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来源期刊
Society and Economy
Society and Economy Social Sciences-Sociology and Political Science
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
26
审稿时长
28 weeks
期刊介绍: The double-blind peer-reviewed journal publishes original research articles and book reviews in the fields of economics, social sciences, and business studies, which address social and economic issues in Central and Eastern Europe or have relevance for social and economic development in this region. While it welcomes articles from the international academic community, Society and Economy seeks in particular to provide an international forum for scholars working in the research traditions of this region. The journal welcomes submissions of high-quality and multi-disciplinary articles that address social, demographic, political, economic and industrial trends and challenges. Society and Economy is a gold open access journal since 2019 but authors are not requested to pay an article processing fee.
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