加拿大环境与增长关系的因果分析,促进包容性发展指标

Sochi C. Iwuoha, J. Onochie
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摘要

在环境和发展经济学分析中,人们对其他增长衡量标准的相关性知之甚少。例如,在加拿大,没有文献研究环境绩效水平与经济进步的替代衡量标准之间是否存在因果关系(这些衡量标准被认为比国内生产总值(GDP)更能反映整体经济福祉)。由于环境政策可能与整体经济福祉相关,我们认为,了解整体经济进步对于实现可持续发展和减排目标至关重要。本文通过评估 1995 年至 2019 年加拿大国家级温室气体排放量(GHG,作为环境绩效指标)与国民可支配总收入(GNDI)、人类发展指数(HDI)和经济自由度指数(IEF)这三种经济增长替代指标之间的因果联系和方向,填补了这一知识空白。我们的研究结果表明,加拿大的温室气体与其他经济增长指标之间存在因果关系。这意味着,加拿大的 GNDI、HDI 和 IEF 在预测国家层面的温室气体排放总量时,可能是对 GDP 的有益补充。这项研究为进一步考虑整体经济福利在加拿大以及其他国家寻求可持续、低排放经济发展中的作用提供了启示。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Causal Analysis of Canada's Environment-Growth Nexus for Inclusive Development Metrics
Little is known about the relevance of alternative measures of growth in environmental and developmental economic analyses. In Canada, for example, no literature exists on whether there is a causal link between the level of environmental performance and alternative measures of economic progress (which are argued to better capture the overall economic wellbeing than the gross domestic product - GDP). As environmental policies may relate to overall economic wellbeing, we opine that understanding overall economic progress is essential for achieving sustainable development and emissions reduction targets. This paper addresses a knowledge gap by assessing the causal links and directions between Canada’s national-level greenhouse gas emissions (GHG - as an indicator of environmental performance) and three alternative measures of economic growth, namely, gross national disposable income (GNDI), human development index (HDI), and index of economic freedom (IEF); from 1995 to 2019. Our results indicate that causality exists between Canada’s GHG and the alternative growth measures. This implies that Canada’s GNDI, HDI, and IEF may be useful and complementary to GDP in forecasting the national-level total GHG emissions. The research provides insights to further consider the role of overall economic wellbeing in the quest for sustainable, lower-emissions, economic development in Canada and by extension in other nations.
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