将动态加乘效应网络模型应用于联合国投票行为。

IF 1.3 4区数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Annals of Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-10-30 DOI:10.1214/23-aoas1762

Bomin Kim, Xiaoyue Niu, David Hunter, Xun CaO

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引用次数: 0

摘要

受联合国投票行为研究的启发，我们为一系列随时间相关的网络引入了一个回归模型。我们的模型是对 Hoff（2021 年）的加法和乘法效应网络模型（AMEN）的动态扩展。除了包含时间结构外，该模型还容纳了两种类型的缺失数据，从而允许网络规模随时间变化。我们通过模拟演示了模型各组成部分的必要性。我们将该模型应用于 1983 年至 2014 年的联合国大会投票数据（Voeten，2013 年），以回答有关国际投票行为的有趣研究问题。除了发现可以解释投票行为的重要因素外，模型估计的加法效应、乘法效应及其变动揭示了各国有意义的外交政策立场和联盟。

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A DYNAMIC ADDITIVE AND MULTIPLICATIVE EFFECTS NETWORK MODEL WITH APPLICATION TO THE UNITED NATIONS VOTING BEHAVIORS.

Motivated by a study of United Nations voting behaviors, we introduce a regression model for a series of networks that are correlated over time. Our model is a dynamic extension of the additive and multiplicative effects network model (AMEN) of Hoff (2021). In addition to incorporating a temporal structure, the model accommodates two types of missing data thus allows the size of the network to vary over time. We demonstrate via simulations the necessity of various components of the model. We apply the model to the United Nations General Assembly voting data from 1983 to 2014 (Voeten, 2013) to answer interesting research questions regarding international voting behaviors. In addition to finding important factors that could explain the voting behaviors, the model-estimated additive effects, multiplicative effects, and their movements reveal meaningful foreign policy positions and alliances of various countries.

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来源期刊

Annals of Applied Statistics 社会科学-统计学与概率论

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

5.60%

发文量

131

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Statistical research spans an enormous range from direct subject-matter collaborations to pure mathematical theory. The Annals of Applied Statistics, the newest journal from the IMS, is aimed at papers in the applied half of this range. Published quarterly in both print and electronic form, our goal is to provide a timely and unified forum for all areas of applied statistics.