利用变压器网络预报太阳耀斑

IF 2.6 3区 物理与天体物理 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS
Keahi Pelkum Donahue, Fadil Inceoglu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

包括太阳耀斑和日冕物质抛射在内的空间天气现象对地球有重大影响。由于热引起的大气膨胀,这些事件可导致卫星轨道衰减、全球定位系统导航和电信系统中断、卫星损坏和大面积停电。耀斑和相关事件有可能破坏技术和扰乱人类活动,这促使我们进行预测开发。我们使用变压器网络来预测一个活动区(AR)是否会在未来 24 小时内释放特定级别的耀斑。针对每种预测情况,我们都开发了单独的模型。我们训练变换器使用时间序列数据对 24 或 48 小时的数据序列进行分类。序列由 18 个物理参数组成,这些参数是空间-天气 HMI 活动区域斑块数据产品中的 AR 的特征。耀斑事件信息来自地球静止业务环境卫星耀斑目录。我们的模型在≥C 级情况下的表现优于先前的一项研究,该研究同样只使用了 24 小时的数据,而在≥M 级情况下的表现则稍差一些。与使用更大时间窗或耀斑历史等附加数据的研究相比,结果不相上下。使用较少的数据有利于存储有限的平台,我们计划最终在这些平台上部署该算法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Forecasting solar flares with a transformer network
Space weather phenomena, including solar flares and coronal mass ejections, have significant influence on Earth. These events can cause satellite orbital decay due to heat-induced atmospheric expansion, disruption of GPS navigation and telecommunications systems, damage to satellites, and widespread power blackouts. The potential of flares and associated events to damage technology and disrupt human activities motivates prediction development. We use Transformer networks to predict whether an active region (AR) will release a flare of a specific class within the next 24 h. Two cases are considered: ≥C-class and ≥M-class. For each prediction case, separate models are developed. We train the Transformer to use time-series data to classify 24- or 48-h sequences of data. The sequences consist of 18 physical parameters that characterize an AR from the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches data product. Flare event information is obtained from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite flare catalog. Our model outperforms a prior study that similarly used only 24 h of data for the ≥C-class case and performs slightly worse for the ≥M-class case. When compared to studies that used a larger time window or additional data such as flare history, results are comparable. Using less data is conducive to platforms with limited storage, on which we plan to eventually deploy this algorithm.
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences
Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS-
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
13.30%
发文量
363
审稿时长
14 weeks
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