THE INFLUENCE OF SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM FACTORS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF KEY SECTORS OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SPHERE OF THE ALTAI KRAI

A prerequisite for the stable progressive development of the economy at any level is the predictability of the behavior of its elements. In modern conditions, the economy of the region can be affected by both external factors and internal changes. The purpose of the study is to identify short-term and long-term factors affecting the development of key indicators of socio-economic development for the region. The article presents the results of modeling the influence of these factors on the indicators of the main economic sectors of the region and the social sphere. The obtained results are provided by the application of econometric methodology. In particular, the methods of checking for a unit root are used, taking into account possible nonlinearity, seasonality and the presence of structural breaks, Granger causality, nonlinear cointegration relationship. Thus, the hypothesis of a nonlinear long-term relationship between nominal accrued wages and the consumer price index has been confirmed, a long-term relationship between the coefficients of natural and migration growth, a causal relationship between the development of the main sectors of the economy of the region with the external price environment has been revealed. Further steps are proposed to develop the results obtained, in particular, in the development, modification and control of the implementation of strategic planning documents of the region.