在后 COVID-19 经济复苏期间，滞后效应是否会影响美国经济？

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI:10.4337/roke.2023.04.04

M. Setterfield

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引用次数: 0

摘要

滞后的一个重要特性是，规模足够大的临时事件会产生永久性影响。美国 COVID-19 经济衰退既是暂时的，也是极其严重的。这就引出了一个假设，即由于滞后效应，经济衰退会对美国经济产生永久性影响。我们对这一假设进行了研究，重点关注实际和潜在的总体活动，并在 COVID-19 衰退后最初两三年的复苏数据中寻找可能存在不利滞后效应的迹象。结果表明，这种迹象很少存在。由此得出的结论是，从长远来看，美国经济的总体活动水平基本上不会受到与 COVID-19 衰退相关的短期不利因素的影响。

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Will hysteresis effects afflict the US economy during the post-COVID-19 recovery?

An important property of hysteresis is that temporary events of sufficient magnitude can have permanent effects. The COVID-19 recession in the US was both temporary and extremely deep. This invites the hypothesis that the recession had permanent effects on the US economy as a result of hysteresis. We investigate this hypothesis by focusing on aggregate activity – both actual and potential – and searching for signs of possible adverse hysteresis effects in the data generated by the first two to three years of recovery from the COVID-19 recession. Results suggest that few such signs exist. The conclusion that emerges is that aggregate levels of activity in the US economy will emerge largely unscathed in the longer term from short-term adversities associated with the COVID-19 recession.

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.