加强新现实主义:2014 年俄乌冲突后印度-俄罗斯防务合作对伊朗的启示

Ali Emamifar, Bahareh Sazmand, Maziar Mozaffari Falarti
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摘要

乌克兰旷日持久的冲突已在全球引起共鸣,对国际安全和外交动态产生了重大影响,尤其是在军事和防务合作领域。本研究仔细研究了冲突的后果,重点关注其对俄罗斯和印度之间已建立的防务伙伴关系的影响。通过仔细研究相关文献和原始资料,本研究调查了乌克兰冲突自 2014 年以来对俄印防务合作的影响。研究评估了印度的国防采购战略是如何调整的,发现印度有意转向俄罗斯以外的国防供应商多样化。本研究还强调,伊朗应从印俄防务合作前景中吸取教训。研究主张伊朗实现武器供应商多元化,大力投资国内国防工业,大幅减少对俄罗斯武器的依赖。通过借鉴印度冲突后的国防演变,伊朗可以勾勒出一条自主增强国防能力的轨迹。这就要求伊朗在加强本土技术实力的同时,建立更广泛的国际伙伴关系。受印度在 2014 年俄乌冲突后重新调整防务合作的启发,本调查报告为伊朗提供了一个蓝图,旨在引导伊朗采取更具弹性和自力更生的防务态势。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Enhancing neorealism: Lessons from India-Russia defense cooperation for Iran in the aftermath of the 2014 Russo-Ukraine conflict
The enduring conflict in Ukraine has resonated globally, significantly impacting international security and diplomatic dynamics, particularly in the arena of military and defense cooperation. This study meticulously examines the aftermath of the conflict, focusing on its implications for the established defense partnership between Russia and India. By scrutinizing pertinent literature and primary sources, this study investigates the reverberations of the Ukraine conflict on Russia-India defense cooperation since 2014. It evaluates how India’s defense procurement strategies have adapted, discerning a deliberate shift towards diversification of defense suppliers beyond Russia. This study also emphasizes that Iran should heed the lessons emanating from the India-Russia defense cooperation outlook. It advocates for Iran to diversify its arms suppliers, heavily invest in its domestic defense industry, and significantly reduce its dependency on Russian weapons. By drawing parallels with India’s post-conflict defense evolution, Iran can chart a trajectory towards bolstering its own defense capabilities autonomously. This necessitates fostering a broader spectrum of international partnerships while concurrently enhancing its indigenous technological prowess. The investigation offers Iran a blueprint inspired by India’s recalibration of defense cooperation following the 2014 Russo-Ukraine conflict, aiming to guide Iran towards a more resilient and self-reliant defense posture.
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