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引用次数: 0
摘要
为减少云量估计的不确定性,改善青藏高原地面短波辐射预报,首次尝试直接应用四维局部集合变换卡尔曼滤波法同化云光学厚度(COT),提出了一种新的云同化系统。利用新一代地球静止卫星 "向日葵8号 "提供的高分辨率时空数据和高同化频率,实现了对云的精确估算和辐射预报。通过独立验证,同化后的 COT 和 SSR 有了明显改善。SSR的相关系数(CORR)提高了11.3%,均方根误差(RMSE)和平均偏差误差(MBE)分别降低了28.5%和58.9%。2 小时周期同化预报结果显示,同化系统有效降低了 SSR 的高估。这些研究结果表明,同化技术在数值天气预报中预报 SSR 方面具有很大的潜力。通过云特性同化来改进模式预报的最终目标还需要进一步的研究来实现。
Estimating hourly surface shortwave radiation over northeast of the Tibetan Plateau by assimilating Himawari-8 cloud optical thickness
To reduce the uncertainty estimation of clouds and improve the forecast of surface shortwave radiation (SSR) over the Tibetan Plateau, a new cloud assimilation system is proposed which is the first attempt to directly apply the four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter method to assimilate the cloud optical thickness (COT). The high-resolution spatial and temporal data assimilated from the next-generation geostationary satellite Himawari-8, with the high-assimilation frequency, realized an accurate estimation of the clouds and radiation forecasting. The COT and SSR were significantly improved after the assimilation by independent verification. The correlation coefficient (CORR) of the SSR was increased by 11.3%, and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean bias error (MBE) were decreased by 28.5% and 58.9%, respectively. The 2-h cycle assimilation forecast results show that the overestimation of SSR has been effectively reduced using the assimilation system. These findings demonstrate the high potential of this assimilation technique in forecasting of SSR in numerical weather prediction. The ultimate goal that to improve the model forecast through the assimilation of cloud properties requires further studies to achieve.
Geoscience LettersEarth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
2.50%
发文量
42
审稿时长
25 weeks
期刊介绍:
Geoscience Letters is the official journal of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, and a fully open access journal published under the SpringerOpen brand. The journal publishes original, innovative and timely research letter articles and concise reviews on studies of the Earth and its environment, the planetary and space sciences. Contributions reflect the eight scientific sections of the AOGS: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeosciences, Hydrological Sciences, Interdisciplinary Geosciences, Ocean Sciences, Planetary Sciences, Solar and Terrestrial Sciences, and Solid Earth Sciences. Geoscience Letters focuses on cutting-edge fundamental and applied research in the broad field of the geosciences, including the applications of geoscience research to societal problems. This journal is Open Access, providing rapid electronic publication of high-quality, peer-reviewed scientific contributions.