Modeling Sociopsychological Processes of the Formation of the Population’s Position on Vaccine Prevention in the Context of Information Propaganda

Abstract

This article studies the development and analysis of a model for the formation of the population’s position regarding the influenza virus vaccine prophylaxis within the context of annual recurring seasonal increases in the incidence of influenza. The adoption of a decision on the eve of the next vaccination campaign is taken in accordance with the psychological reaction to the result of the previous year’s decision. A case of the disease is considered as the result of an unsuccessful decision, and its change is related to the nature of the psychological reaction to failure: emotional or restrained. This approach is complemented by taking into account the impact of vaccination and antivaccination propaganda. An analytical expression is obtained for the ratio of stationary proportions of those agreeing and disagreeing with vaccination, which makes it possible to determine those parameter values that ensure the desired ratio.