未婚生育：核算与平衡分析，1960-1995 年

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-27 DOI:10.1016/j.red.2023.12.001

John Kennes , John Knowles

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在 20 世纪 90 年代，尽管未婚女性有更多机会堕胎并改进了节育措施，但美国未婚女性的生育比例却远高于 30%。我们的研究表明，在未婚夫妇合作行为的均衡匹配模型中，可以解释 97% 的未婚女性生育率上升是对一系列有据可查的冲击的反应：离婚率上升、堕胎机会增加和避孕措施改善。这些因素之间的均衡互动非常重要；如果婚姻盈余保持不变，那么未婚生育的变化就会非常小。我们还发现，扭转节育或堕胎可及性的改革本身对扭转这些社会趋势的作用甚微。

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Unmarried births: Accounting and equilibrium analysis, 1960-1995

The share of births to unmarried women in the U.S. rose well above 30% in the 1990s, despite unmarried women having greater access to abortion and improved birth control. We show that an equilibrium matching model in which unmarried couples behave co-operatively can explain 97% of the rise in the UMB ratio as the response to a combination of well-documented shocks: rising divorce rates, access to abortion, and improved contraception. Equilibrium interactions among these factors are important; had the marital surplus remained constant, very little change in unmarried births would have occurred. We also find that reforms reversing accessibility of birth control or abortion would on their own do little to reverse these social trends.

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来源期刊

Review of Economic Dynamics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Review of Economic Dynamics publishes meritorious original contributions to dynamic economics. The scope of the journal is intended to be broad and to reflect the view of the Society for Economic Dynamics that the field of economics is unified by the scientific approach to economics. We will publish contributions in any area of economics provided they meet the highest standards of scientific research.