Is tuberculosis epidemic riding upon the waves of COVID-19 pandemic? A time-trend study from South India.

Background: National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (NTEP) activities have decelerated due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Doubt is raising globally on emerging tuberculosis (TB) epidemic related to COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we aim to identify the trends in incidence and patterns of TB during the pandemic (2020-2022).

Methods: A single-institution retrospective study was conducted. All data including demography, site of involvement, and the time trends of TB cases registered under NTEP between January 2019 and June 2022 at our hospital were retrieved from the prospective register. Statistical analysis was done using SPSS version 20.0.

Results: Total 381 cases were registered. The mean age was 43 years (±17). The male: female ratio was 1.2:1. Majority of females (40%) and males (37%) were in the age of 11-30 years and 31-50 years, respectively. The TB cases' frequency in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 (till June) were 38.3% (146), 11.8% (45), 29.4% (112), and 20.5% (78), respectively. The most common site involved was pulmonary (50%) followed by cervical lymph node (19.9%). A significant reduction in TB cases was noted in 2020 during the first wave of COVID-19. The estimated total TB cases in 2022 are similar to pre-COVID-19 year 2019. The ratio of pulmonary versus extrapulmonary TB was 1:1 during 2020.

Conclusions: We found a significant reduction of TB cases during the first wave of COVID-19, but cases have started to rise again and yet to reach pre-COVID-19 status in 2022. No definite evidence of TB epidemic in the background of COVID-19 pandemic was found. Young females within 11-30 years were found to be more affected and need to be the main focus of TB preventive efforts. COVID-19 pandemic has affected the ratio between extrapulmonary and pulmonary TB significantly.