当前人口登记数据与 2020 年人口普查结果之间的地区差异

IF 1.5 4区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY
Irina Vankina, Y. Simagin, Djamilya Murtuzalieva
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引用次数: 0

摘要

文章分析了俄罗斯联邦各联邦区、主体和市镇的人口数据,这些数据来自俄罗斯国家统计局的两个不同官方来源,日期相近:一个是截至 2022 年 1 月 1 日的当前人口登记数据,另一个是 2020 年全俄人口普查数据,其控制点为 2021 年 10 月 1 日。由于人口数量的变化相当缓慢,理论上这些数据应该不会有太大差异。事实上,根据不同的数据,全国人口数量相差超过 1%(人口普查数据相差 160 万人)。行政区划级别越低,差异越大。在俄罗斯联邦的一些市镇一级,差异几乎达到 2 倍。此外,根据人口普查数据,人口数量多于当前人口登记数据的市镇和人口数量少于当前人口登记数据的市镇出现的频率大致相同,但情况恰恰相反。文章指出了人口普查数据与当前人口登记数据差异最大的国家行政单位,以及造成这种或那种差异的原因。人口普查数据 "超重 "最多的是中央联邦区的城市(尤其是莫斯科城市群),而与现行统计数 据相比 "不足 "最多的是远东和西伯利亚联邦区。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Territorial differences between the data of the current population registration and the results of the 2020 Census
The article analyzes population data by federal districts, subjects and municipalities of the Russian Federation, obtained from two different official sources of Rosstat for close dates: data from the current population registration as of January 1, 2022 and data from the All-Russian Population Census of 2020, the control point of which was October 1, 2021. Since population size changes rather slowly, theoretically these data should not differ significantly. In fact, it has turned out that the population size across the country, according to various data, differs by more than 1% (by 1.6 million people in the direction of the census data). The lower the level of administrative division, the greater the differences. At the level of some municipalities of the Russian Federation, the differences make almost 2 times. Moreover, with approximately equal frequency, there are both municipalities where, according to the census, the population is greater than according to the current population registration, and with the opposite situation. The article identifies the administrative units of the country where the differences between the census data and the current population registration are the largest, and the causes of the differences in one direction or another. The largest “overweight” of the population in favor of the census was found in the municipalities of the Central Federal District (especially in the Moscow urban agglomeration), and the maximum “shortage” of the population compared to the current accounting data was in the Far Eastern and Siberian Federal Districts.
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来源期刊
Population
Population DEMOGRAPHY-
CiteScore
2.00
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