{"title":"粮食主产区耕地非粮化率的空间特征及其驱动因素:来自中国山东省的证据","authors":"Liye Wang, Jiwei Xu, Yaolin Liu, Siyu Zhang","doi":"10.3390/land13010022","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The non-grain production rate (NGPR) of cropland is a grave threat to global grain and food supply, and has been a hot issue across the world. However, few scholars explored the impacts of the NGPRs of different cropland types, such as those of paddy land and irrigated land in the same region. Thus, according to the third land survey data, this research first estimated the NGPRs of cropland, paddy land, irrigated land, and dry land at different scales in Shandong Province, China in 2019. Then, their spatial characteristics at a county scale were identified by combining the standard deviation ellipse model and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Finally, the potential driving factors of the NGPR of cropland were explored with the geographical weight regression model. Results are as follows: (1) The NGPR of cropland is at relatively lower level in Shandong Province and is dominated by that of irrigated land, and the NGPR of dry land is higher than those of other cropland types; (2) Significant regional differences exist in the NGPR of cropland, with profound severity in the southeast and much lower in the northwest; (3) At the provincial scale, the total power of agricultural machinery per capita and utilization degree of cropland factors can relieve the NGPR of cropland in nearly the entire research area. The proportion of GDP of the primary industry in GDP, urban population rate, and DEM are the main obstacles for NGPR decrease. At the county scale, the influences of driving factors varied across regions. This research can provide targeted and regional differentiated references for policy improvement and NGPR management.","PeriodicalId":37702,"journal":{"name":"Land","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Spatial Characteristics of the Non-Grain Production Rate of Cropland and Its Driving Factors in Major Grain-Producing Area: Evidence from Shandong Province, China\",\"authors\":\"Liye Wang, Jiwei Xu, Yaolin Liu, Siyu Zhang\",\"doi\":\"10.3390/land13010022\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The non-grain production rate (NGPR) of cropland is a grave threat to global grain and food supply, and has been a hot issue across the world. However, few scholars explored the impacts of the NGPRs of different cropland types, such as those of paddy land and irrigated land in the same region. Thus, according to the third land survey data, this research first estimated the NGPRs of cropland, paddy land, irrigated land, and dry land at different scales in Shandong Province, China in 2019. Then, their spatial characteristics at a county scale were identified by combining the standard deviation ellipse model and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Finally, the potential driving factors of the NGPR of cropland were explored with the geographical weight regression model. Results are as follows: (1) The NGPR of cropland is at relatively lower level in Shandong Province and is dominated by that of irrigated land, and the NGPR of dry land is higher than those of other cropland types; (2) Significant regional differences exist in the NGPR of cropland, with profound severity in the southeast and much lower in the northwest; (3) At the provincial scale, the total power of agricultural machinery per capita and utilization degree of cropland factors can relieve the NGPR of cropland in nearly the entire research area. The proportion of GDP of the primary industry in GDP, urban population rate, and DEM are the main obstacles for NGPR decrease. At the county scale, the influences of driving factors varied across regions. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
耕地非谷物生产率(NGPR)严重威胁着全球谷物和粮食供应,一直是世界范围内的热点问题。然而,很少有学者探讨不同耕地类型(如同一地区的水田和灌溉地)的非粮食生产率的影响。因此,本研究根据第三次土地调查数据,首先估算了 2019 年中国山东省不同尺度的耕地、水田、灌溉地和旱地的 NGPRs。然后,结合标准偏差椭圆模型和空间自相关分析,确定了它们在县域尺度上的空间特征。最后,利用地理权重回归模型探讨了耕地NGPR的潜在驱动因素。结果如下(1)山东省耕地净收益率水平相对较低,以灌溉耕地净收益率为主,旱地净收益率高于其他耕地类型;(2)耕地净收益率存在明显的区域差异,东南部严重,西北部较低;(3) 在省域范围内,人均农业机械总动力和耕地要素利用率几乎可以缓解整个研究区的耕地 NGPR。第一产业 GDP 占 GDP 的比重、城镇人口比率和 DEM 是 NGPR 下降的主要障碍。在县域尺度上,不同地区的驱动因素影响各不相同。本研究可为政策改进和 NGPR 管理提供有针对性的区域差异化参考。
Spatial Characteristics of the Non-Grain Production Rate of Cropland and Its Driving Factors in Major Grain-Producing Area: Evidence from Shandong Province, China
The non-grain production rate (NGPR) of cropland is a grave threat to global grain and food supply, and has been a hot issue across the world. However, few scholars explored the impacts of the NGPRs of different cropland types, such as those of paddy land and irrigated land in the same region. Thus, according to the third land survey data, this research first estimated the NGPRs of cropland, paddy land, irrigated land, and dry land at different scales in Shandong Province, China in 2019. Then, their spatial characteristics at a county scale were identified by combining the standard deviation ellipse model and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Finally, the potential driving factors of the NGPR of cropland were explored with the geographical weight regression model. Results are as follows: (1) The NGPR of cropland is at relatively lower level in Shandong Province and is dominated by that of irrigated land, and the NGPR of dry land is higher than those of other cropland types; (2) Significant regional differences exist in the NGPR of cropland, with profound severity in the southeast and much lower in the northwest; (3) At the provincial scale, the total power of agricultural machinery per capita and utilization degree of cropland factors can relieve the NGPR of cropland in nearly the entire research area. The proportion of GDP of the primary industry in GDP, urban population rate, and DEM are the main obstacles for NGPR decrease. At the county scale, the influences of driving factors varied across regions. This research can provide targeted and regional differentiated references for policy improvement and NGPR management.
LandENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-Nature and Landscape Conservation
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
23.10%
发文量
1927
期刊介绍:
Land is an international and cross-disciplinary, peer-reviewed, open access journal of land system science, landscape, soil–sediment–water systems, urban study, land–climate interactions, water–energy–land–food (WELF) nexus, biodiversity research and health nexus, land modelling and data processing, ecosystem services, and multifunctionality and sustainability etc., published monthly online by MDPI. The International Association for Landscape Ecology (IALE), European Land-use Institute (ELI), and Landscape Institute (LI) are affiliated with Land, and their members receive a discount on the article processing charge.