德国房价暴涨的地区供需基本面

IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS
Lars Brausewetter, Stephan L. Thomsen, Johannes Trunzer
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在过去十年中,德国房价出现了前所未有的增长。根据地区层面的质量调整后住房价格数据,我们发现地区基本面因素可以解释地区间房价增长的三分之二,以及地区内房价增长的 77% 至 87%。价格上涨主要受当地需求基本面的共同影响,特别是人口密度和技能水平。然而,我们进一步揭示了与基本面无关的系统性变化:前 7 大城市的高估、路径依赖和空间溢出效应。我们推断,投机、投资者对流动性市场的偏好以及有限理性在很大程度上促成了德国近期的房价暴涨。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Regional Supply and Demand Fundamentals in the German Housing Price Boom
Over the last decade, German housing prices have increased unprecedentedly. Drawing on quality-adjusted housing price data at the district level, we show that regional fundamentals explain up to two-thirds of between-region and 77 to 87 percent of within-region variation in price growth. Price increases were driven mainly by co-movements in local demand fundamentals, notably population density and skill level. However, we further reveal systematic variation unrelated to fundamentals: overvaluation of top 7 cities, path dependency, and spatial spillovers. We infer that speculation, investor preference for liquid markets, and bounded rationality contributed substantially to the recent housing price boom in Germany.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.30
自引率
9.10%
发文量
17
期刊介绍: German Economic Review, the official publication of the German Economic Association (Verein für Socialpolitik), is an international journal publishing original and rigorous research of general interest in a broad range of economic disciplines, including: - macro- and microeconomics - economic policy - international economics - public economics - finance - business administration The scope of research approaches includes theoretical, empirical and experimental work. Innovative and thought-provoking contributions, in particular from younger authors, are especially welcome.
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