Lars Brausewetter, Stephan L. Thomsen, Johannes Trunzer
{"title":"德国房价暴涨的地区供需基本面","authors":"Lars Brausewetter, Stephan L. Thomsen, Johannes Trunzer","doi":"10.1515/ger-2023-0063","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Over the last decade, German housing prices have increased unprecedentedly. Drawing on quality-adjusted housing price data at the district level, we show that regional fundamentals explain up to two-thirds of between-region and 77 to 87 percent of within-region variation in price growth. Price increases were driven mainly by co-movements in local demand fundamentals, notably population density and skill level. However, we further reveal systematic variation unrelated to fundamentals: overvaluation of top 7 cities, path dependency, and spatial spillovers. We infer that speculation, investor preference for liquid markets, and bounded rationality contributed substantially to the recent housing price boom in Germany.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Regional Supply and Demand Fundamentals in the German Housing Price Boom\",\"authors\":\"Lars Brausewetter, Stephan L. Thomsen, Johannes Trunzer\",\"doi\":\"10.1515/ger-2023-0063\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Over the last decade, German housing prices have increased unprecedentedly. Drawing on quality-adjusted housing price data at the district level, we show that regional fundamentals explain up to two-thirds of between-region and 77 to 87 percent of within-region variation in price growth. Price increases were driven mainly by co-movements in local demand fundamentals, notably population density and skill level. However, we further reveal systematic variation unrelated to fundamentals: overvaluation of top 7 cities, path dependency, and spatial spillovers. We infer that speculation, investor preference for liquid markets, and bounded rationality contributed substantially to the recent housing price boom in Germany.\",\"PeriodicalId\":46476,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"German Economic Review\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-12\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"German Economic Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2023-0063\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"German Economic Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2023-0063","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Regional Supply and Demand Fundamentals in the German Housing Price Boom
Over the last decade, German housing prices have increased unprecedentedly. Drawing on quality-adjusted housing price data at the district level, we show that regional fundamentals explain up to two-thirds of between-region and 77 to 87 percent of within-region variation in price growth. Price increases were driven mainly by co-movements in local demand fundamentals, notably population density and skill level. However, we further reveal systematic variation unrelated to fundamentals: overvaluation of top 7 cities, path dependency, and spatial spillovers. We infer that speculation, investor preference for liquid markets, and bounded rationality contributed substantially to the recent housing price boom in Germany.
期刊介绍:
German Economic Review, the official publication of the German Economic Association (Verein für Socialpolitik), is an international journal publishing original and rigorous research of general interest in a broad range of economic disciplines, including: - macro- and microeconomics - economic policy - international economics - public economics - finance - business administration The scope of research approaches includes theoretical, empirical and experimental work. Innovative and thought-provoking contributions, in particular from younger authors, are especially welcome.