德国房价暴涨的地区供需基本面

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Lars Brausewetter, Stephan L. Thomsen, Johannes Trunzer
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在过去十年中,德国房价出现了前所未有的增长。根据地区层面的质量调整后住房价格数据,我们发现地区基本面因素可以解释地区间房价增长的三分之二,以及地区内房价增长的 77% 至 87%。价格上涨主要受当地需求基本面的共同影响,特别是人口密度和技能水平。然而,我们进一步揭示了与基本面无关的系统性变化:前 7 大城市的高估、路径依赖和空间溢出效应。我们推断,投机、投资者对流动性市场的偏好以及有限理性在很大程度上促成了德国近期的房价暴涨。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Regional Supply and Demand Fundamentals in the German Housing Price Boom
Over the last decade, German housing prices have increased unprecedentedly. Drawing on quality-adjusted housing price data at the district level, we show that regional fundamentals explain up to two-thirds of between-region and 77 to 87 percent of within-region variation in price growth. Price increases were driven mainly by co-movements in local demand fundamentals, notably population density and skill level. However, we further reveal systematic variation unrelated to fundamentals: overvaluation of top 7 cities, path dependency, and spatial spillovers. We infer that speculation, investor preference for liquid markets, and bounded rationality contributed substantially to the recent housing price boom in Germany.
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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