流沙上的白象:低油价和高地缘政治风险

IF 0.9 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Scottish Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2021-05-04 DOI:10.1111/sjpe.12279

Hany Abdel-Latif, Mahmoud El-Gamal

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了低油价和地缘政治风险加剧对中东和北非国家经济增长和投资的影响。我们发现油价的负面冲击和地缘政治风险的正面冲击对GDP和投资都有不利影响。此外，我们发现，当油价较低和/或地缘政治风险水平较高时，投资对中东和北非国家GDP的影响较小。这些调查结果对一些中东和北非国家在2030年愿景中所设想的大型项目经济转型计划的前景提出了质疑。

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White elephants on quicksand: Low oil prices and high geopolitical risk

We investigate the effects of low oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks on economic growth and investment in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. We find that negative shocks to oil prices and positive shocks to geopolitical risk have adverse effects on GDP and investment. Moreover, we find that the impact of investment on GDP in MENA countries is muted when oil prices are low and/or geopolitical risk level is high. These findings cast doubts on the prospects of mega-project economic transformation plans as envisioned in 2030 visions for several MENA countries.

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来源期刊

Scottish Journal of Political Economy Multiple-

CiteScore

1.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Scottish Journal of Political Economy is a generalist journal with an explicitly international reach in both readership and authorship. It is dedicated to publishing the highest quality research in any field of economics, without prejudice to the methodology or to the analytical techniques used. The editors encourage submissions in all fields of economics in order to provide practical contributions to the literature, and to further the influence of economics in the world of practical affairs.