{"title":"通胀飙升与主权借贷:政策实践在增强主权抵御能力中的作用","authors":"Joshua Aizenman, Huanhuan Zheng","doi":"10.1057/s41308-023-00228-5","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Sovereign borrowing during inflation surges is a litmus test of a government’s ability to withstand and navigate macroeconomic shocks. Based on transaction-level bond issuance data, we explore how sovereign financing strategies differ between surging and stable inflations and how policy practices affect their ability to weather inflation shocks. We find that governments lean more toward external borrowing in foreign currency during periods of high inflation, in part to reduce borrowing costs. This pattern is particularly prevalent in emerging markets (EMs), especially when the inflation surge is prolonged and severe. We further show that good practices of fiscal discipline and credibly pegged exchange rate regime alleviate external borrowing in foreign currency amid inflation surges.</p>","PeriodicalId":47177,"journal":{"name":"Imf Economic Review","volume":"77 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Inflation Surge and Sovereign Borrowing: The Role of Policy Practices in Strengthening Sovereign Resilience\",\"authors\":\"Joshua Aizenman, Huanhuan Zheng\",\"doi\":\"10.1057/s41308-023-00228-5\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Sovereign borrowing during inflation surges is a litmus test of a government’s ability to withstand and navigate macroeconomic shocks. Based on transaction-level bond issuance data, we explore how sovereign financing strategies differ between surging and stable inflations and how policy practices affect their ability to weather inflation shocks. We find that governments lean more toward external borrowing in foreign currency during periods of high inflation, in part to reduce borrowing costs. This pattern is particularly prevalent in emerging markets (EMs), especially when the inflation surge is prolonged and severe. We further show that good practices of fiscal discipline and credibly pegged exchange rate regime alleviate external borrowing in foreign currency amid inflation surges.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47177,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Imf Economic Review\",\"volume\":\"77 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-11-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Imf Economic Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00228-5\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Imf Economic Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00228-5","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Inflation Surge and Sovereign Borrowing: The Role of Policy Practices in Strengthening Sovereign Resilience
Sovereign borrowing during inflation surges is a litmus test of a government’s ability to withstand and navigate macroeconomic shocks. Based on transaction-level bond issuance data, we explore how sovereign financing strategies differ between surging and stable inflations and how policy practices affect their ability to weather inflation shocks. We find that governments lean more toward external borrowing in foreign currency during periods of high inflation, in part to reduce borrowing costs. This pattern is particularly prevalent in emerging markets (EMs), especially when the inflation surge is prolonged and severe. We further show that good practices of fiscal discipline and credibly pegged exchange rate regime alleviate external borrowing in foreign currency amid inflation surges.
期刊介绍：
The IMF Economic Review is the official research journal of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is dedicated to publishing peer-reviewed, high-quality, context-related academic research on open-economy macroeconomics. It emphasizes rigorous analysis with an empirical orientation that is of interest to a broad audience, including academics and policymakers. Studies that borrow from, and interact with, other fields such as finance, international trade, political economy, labor, economic history or development are also welcome.
The views presented in published papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to, or reported as, reflecting the position of the IMF, its Executive Board, or any other organization mentioned herein.
Comments
“The IMF Economic Review has been uniquely successful in publishing papers that rigorously analyze real international macroeconomic problems and in a manner that has immediate policy relevance. This success is owed to a great extent to the high quality of the editorial board, which is able to identify papers that are both relevant for policy and are executed using state-of-the-art tools so as to make the analysis compelling.” - Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, IMF
“IMF Economic Review is devoted to state-of-the-art research on the global economy. Given the Fund''s unique position on the front lines of surveillance and crisis management, anyone interested in international economic policy or in macroeconomics more generally will find this journal to be essential reading.” - Maurice Obstfeld, Professor of Economics at University of California, Berkeley; and former Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, IMF
“There is great need for a rigorous academic publication that addresses the key global macro questions of our times. This is what the IMF Economic Review aims to be.” - Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Professor of Economics at University of California, Berkeley; and former Editor of the IMF Economic Review
“To navigate the global crisis, and to take the best policy decisions, will require mobilizing and extending the knowledge we have about open economy macro, from the implications of liquidity traps, to the dangers of large fiscal deficits, to macro-financial interactions, to the contours of a better international monetary and financial system. My hope and my expectation is that the IMF Economic Review will be central to the effort.” - Olivier J. Blanchard, Peterson Institute for International Economics; former Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Department, IMF
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