{"title":"警察罢工会发生什么?凶杀案增加。证据来自巴西塞雷<e:1>","authors":"Alberto Aziani","doi":"10.1080/17440572.2022.2098121","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>ABSTRACT</b></p><p>This study investigates how an abrupt reduction in policing impacts upon the occurrence of homicides in a violent context in the Global South. The study utilizes a police strike in the Brazilian state of Ceará in summer 2020 as a quasi-natural experiment. Separate SARIMA and Exponential Smoothing models fitted on data on weekly homicide counts from January 2015 to the beginning of the strike are used to generate forecasts of homicides in a virtual counterfactual scenario with no police strikes. Actual homicide counts and forecasts are subsequently compared. The strike led to a statistically significant increase in homicides ranging between 110% and 250%. A difference-in-differences analysis confirms this result. The elasticity of homicides with respect to police presence is tentatively estimated at between -1.5 and -5.0. Even in a violent context, the perception of a higher risk of apprehension induced by police presence acts as a powerful deterrent against homicides.</p>","PeriodicalId":12676,"journal":{"name":"Global Crime","volume":"70 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2022-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"What happens when the police go on strike? Homicides increase. Evidence from Ceará, Brazil\",\"authors\":\"Alberto Aziani\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/17440572.2022.2098121\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><b>ABSTRACT</b></p><p>This study investigates how an abrupt reduction in policing impacts upon the occurrence of homicides in a violent context in the Global South. The study utilizes a police strike in the Brazilian state of Ceará in summer 2020 as a quasi-natural experiment. Separate SARIMA and Exponential Smoothing models fitted on data on weekly homicide counts from January 2015 to the beginning of the strike are used to generate forecasts of homicides in a virtual counterfactual scenario with no police strikes. Actual homicide counts and forecasts are subsequently compared. The strike led to a statistically significant increase in homicides ranging between 110% and 250%. A difference-in-differences analysis confirms this result. The elasticity of homicides with respect to police presence is tentatively estimated at between -1.5 and -5.0. Even in a violent context, the perception of a higher risk of apprehension induced by police presence acts as a powerful deterrent against homicides.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":12676,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Global Crime\",\"volume\":\"70 8\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-07-27\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Global Crime\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/17440572.2022.2098121\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Global Crime","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17440572.2022.2098121","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
What happens when the police go on strike? Homicides increase. Evidence from Ceará, Brazil
ABSTRACT
This study investigates how an abrupt reduction in policing impacts upon the occurrence of homicides in a violent context in the Global South. The study utilizes a police strike in the Brazilian state of Ceará in summer 2020 as a quasi-natural experiment. Separate SARIMA and Exponential Smoothing models fitted on data on weekly homicide counts from January 2015 to the beginning of the strike are used to generate forecasts of homicides in a virtual counterfactual scenario with no police strikes. Actual homicide counts and forecasts are subsequently compared. The strike led to a statistically significant increase in homicides ranging between 110% and 250%. A difference-in-differences analysis confirms this result. The elasticity of homicides with respect to police presence is tentatively estimated at between -1.5 and -5.0. Even in a violent context, the perception of a higher risk of apprehension induced by police presence acts as a powerful deterrent against homicides.
期刊介绍：
Global Crime is a social science journal devoted to the study of crime broadly conceived. Its focus is deliberately broad and multi-disciplinary and its first aim is to make the best scholarship on crime available to specialists and non-specialists alike. It endorses no particular orthodoxy and draws on authors from a variety of disciplines, including history, sociology, criminology, economics, political science, anthropology and area studies. The editors welcome contributions on any topic relating to crime, including organized criminality, its history, activities, relations with the state, its penetration of the economy and its perception in popular culture.
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