使用欧洲冠军俱乐部杯的历史数据测试比赛水平结果不确定性的变体

Barry Reilly
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究利用现已停赛的欧洲冠军俱乐部杯次回合比赛的数据,实证检验了一种版本的比赛水平结果不确定性假设(UOH)。所使用的数据涵盖了从1955/56年开始到1991/92年的比赛季节。进行分析的背景是刻意选择的,以反映一个时代,当时欧洲足球的组织性质更严格,受商业化影响的影响更小。关注次回合比赛的动机是,这些比赛可以被解释为“一次性”的体育比赛。这使得第一回合的净胜球差可以作为第二回合比赛结果不确定性的衡量标准。实证分析为UOH的这种变体提供了强有力的有力支持。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Testing a variant of match-level outcome uncertainty using historical data from the European Champion Clubs’ Cup

This study empirically tests a version of the match-level uncertainty of outcome hypothesis (UOH) using data from second leg games in the now defunct European Champion Clubs' Cup. The data used cover the playing seasons from its inception in 1955/56 to 1991/92. The context within which the analysis is conducted is deliberately selected to reflect an era when the organization of European soccer was more austere in nature and less affected by the influence of commercialization. The motivation for the focus on second leg games is that these are interpretable as ‘one-off’ sporting contests. This enables the goal difference from the first leg to provide a measure of outcome uncertainty for the second leg match. The empirical analysis yields strong and compelling support for this variant of the UOH.

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