1900年至2016年英国总需求和总供给冲击的历史

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI:10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101448

Robert Calvert Jump , Karsten Kohler

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文介绍了1900年至2016年英国总需求和总供给冲击的历史。来自凯恩斯模型的信号限制被用来识别这些冲击的信号。我们将失业率和通货膨胀的矢量自回归模型所隐含的30次最大冲击与叙事历史记录进行比较。我们的方法为经济史上著名的事件提供了一个新的视角。我们特别强调了两个事件:20世纪20年代末的总供给冲击，我们将其归因于劳动力议价能力的变化，以及20世纪70年代中期的正总需求冲击，我们将其归因于财政政策。

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A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016

This paper presents a history of aggregate demand and supply shocks spanning 1900 – 2016 for the United Kingdom. Sign restrictions derived from a workhorse Keynesian model are used to identify the signs of those shocks. We compare the 30 largest shocks implied by a vector autoregressive model in unemployment and inflation with the narrative historical record. Our approach provides a new perspective on well-known events in economic history. We highlight two episodes of particular interest: an aggregate supply shock in the late 1920s, which we attribute to changes in the bargaining power of labor, and positive aggregate demand shocks in the mid-1970s, which we attribute to fiscal policy.

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来源期刊

Explorations in Economic History Multiple-

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

8.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： Explorations in Economic History provides broad coverage of the application of economic analysis to historical episodes. The journal has a tradition of innovative applications of theory and quantitative techniques, and it explores all aspects of economic change, all historical periods, all geographical locations, and all political and social systems. The journal includes papers by economists, economic historians, demographers, geographers, and sociologists. Explorations in Economic History is the only journal where you will find "Essays in Exploration." This unique department alerts economic historians to the potential in a new area of research, surveying the recent literature and then identifying the most promising issues to pursue.