季节性预报中北大西洋热带气旋与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动之间的联系

IF 2 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI:10.1002/asl.1190

Robert Doane-Solomon, Daniel J. Befort, Joanne Camp, Kevin Hodges, Antje Weisheimer

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引用次数: 0

摘要

这项研究评估了六个欧洲季节预报模式模拟观测到的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动与北大西洋热带气旋之间的遥感联系的能力。虽然这些模式一般都能捕捉到全流域观测到的联系，但与再分析相比，所有预报模式都高估了这种联系的强度。此外，加勒比海的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动与热带气旋的关系模拟得很差。结果表明，对风切变的错误预报似乎影响了某些模式对远程联系的表示，但这并不能完全充分地解释这种联系被高估的原因。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

The link between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and ENSO in seasonal forecasts

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The link between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and ENSO in seasonal forecasts

This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. While the models generally capture the basin-wide observed link, its magnitude is overestimated in all forecast models compared to reanalysis. Furthermore, the ENSO-TC relationship in the Caribbean is poorly simulated. It is shown that incorrect forecasting of wind shear appears to affect the representation of the teleconnection in some models, however it is not a completely sufficient explanation for the overestimation of the link.

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来源期刊

Atmospheric Science Letters METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Atmospheric Science Letters (ASL) is a wholly Open Access electronic journal. Its aim is to provide a fully peer reviewed publication route for new shorter contributions in the field of atmospheric and closely related sciences. Through its ability to publish shorter contributions more rapidly than conventional journals, ASL offers a framework that promotes new understanding and creates scientific debate - providing a platform for discussing scientific issues and techniques. We encourage the presentation of multi-disciplinary work and contributions that utilise ideas and techniques from parallel areas. We particularly welcome contributions that maximise the visualisation capabilities offered by a purely on-line journal. ASL welcomes papers in the fields of: Dynamical meteorology; Ocean-atmosphere systems; Climate change, variability and impacts; New or improved observations from instrumentation; Hydrometeorology; Numerical weather prediction; Data assimilation and ensemble forecasting; Physical processes of the atmosphere; Land surface-atmosphere systems.