Modern demographic problems of the Republic of Tuva

The article gives an assessment of modern demographic problems in the border region of Russia — the Republic of Tuva. The results of the study are presented by methods of grouping, generalization, comparative, structural, logical and statistical analysis, graphic method. The empirical basis for theoretical generalizations and practical developments was the data of Rosstat, Krasnoyarsk State Statistics Service, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Tuva and others. The Republic of Tuva has a high birth rate (20.0‰) (2nd place in 2021 among the regions of Russia after the Chechen Republic (20.1‰), exceeding the mortality rate of the population, which looks favorably against the all-Russian background. Nevertheless, according to the results of the study of demographic processes in the republic, unfavorable trends in the demographic situation have also been revealed: a decrease in the birth rate, an increase in mortality rate, a decrease in the population of the majority of kozhuuns (municipal districts). By 2021, in comparison with 2000, there was a decrease in the population in 10 of 17 kozhuuns of the republic. Of particular concern is migration outflow, which is the main factor of the decline in the population of the border kozhuuns of the Republic of Tuva. The conducted forecasting for the short term showed a slight increase in the population of Tuva. The cluster analysis made it possible to identify the kozhuuns with the most favorable, deteriorating and unfavorable demographic situation. Favorable demographic situation is observed only in the city of Kyzyl — the capital of the Republic of Tuva. A relatively favorable demographic characteristic is observed only in 6 kozhuuns of the republic. The risks of population decline are observed in 5 kozhuuns. 7 kozhuuns of Tuva are marked by an unfavorable demographic situation.