印尼证券交易所(IDX)科技股股价加权移动平均法预测

Syefira Ramadhani, Nurafni Eltivia, Nur Indah Riwajanti
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在预测印尼证券交易所(IDX)上市科技股的股价。我们抽样了2022年在IDX上市的34家科技公司中的26家。数据为印尼证券交易所官方网站www.idx.co.id和finance.yahoo.co.id的二次数据,时间为9个月,即2022年1月至9月。结果表明,计算得到的加权移动平均(WMA)平均值的预测误差绝对值为16374.70,而绝对值的预测误差百分比为531.10%。预测评价方法采用平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)。得到的MAPE值为3.02%。MAPE得分最高的是KIOS(5.99%),最低的是PTSN(1.23%)。从MAPE对科技类公司的结果可以看出,使用WMA方法和MAPE误差估值在预测股价方面属于优秀的预测能力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Stock Price Forecasting with the Weight Moving Average Method in Technology Sector Companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX)
This study aims to forecast the share price of the technology sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). We sampled 26 of the 34 technology companies listed on the IDX in 2022. The data used is secondary data from the official website of the Indonesia Stock Exchange, namely www.idx.co.id and finance.yahoo.co.id for 9 months, namely the period January – September 2022. The results showed that the calculation of the Weight Moving Average (WMA) for the average value of the Absolute value of forecast error 16,374.70, and the value of the Absolute value of the Percentage of Error is 531.10%. The forecasting assessment method uses Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE). The resulting MAPE value is 3.02%. The highest MAPE score was Kioson Komersial Indonesia Tbk (KIOS) with a score of 5.99% while the lowest score was Sat Nusapersada Tbk (PTSN) with a score of 1.23%. From the results of MAPE for technology sector companies, it can be concluded that using the WMA Method and MAPE error valuation falls into the category of excellent forecasting ability in forecasting stock prices.
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