Igor Magaton Ribas1, João Pedro Medeiros Gomes¹, Pedro Augusto Rosa Valadares¹, Lucas Santos Jardim¹, Mário Círio Nogueira¹, Cássia de Castro Martins Ferreira2, William Cossich Marcial de Farias3, Letícia de Castro Martins Ferreira1
{"title":"气温对巴西主要微地区COPD死亡风险的影响:一项时间序列研究","authors":"Igor Magaton Ribas1, João Pedro Medeiros Gomes¹, Pedro Augusto Rosa Valadares¹, Lucas Santos Jardim¹, Mário Círio Nogueira¹, Cássia de Castro Martins Ferreira2, William Cossich Marcial de Farias3, Letícia de Castro Martins Ferreira1","doi":"10.36416/1806-3756/e20220442","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Objective: To evaluate the association between the risk of death from COPD and air temperature events in ten major Brazilian microregions. Methods: This was a time series analysis of daily COPD deaths and daily mean air temperatures between 1996 and 2017. Using distributed nonlinear lag models, we estimated the cumulative relative risks of COPD mortality for four temperature percentiles (representing moderate and extreme cold and heat events) in relation to a minimum mortality temperature, with a lag of 21 days, in each microregion. Results: Significant associations were found between extreme air temperature events and the risk of death from COPD in the southern and southeastern microregions in Brazil. There was an association of extreme cold and an increased mortality risk in the following microregions: 36% (95% CI, 1.12-1.65), in Porto Alegre; 27% (95% CI, 1.03-1.58), in Curitiba; and 34% (95% CI, 1.19-1.52), in São Paulo; whereas moderate cold was associated with an increased risk of 20% (95% CI, 1.01-1.41), 33% (95% CI, 1.09-1.62), and 24% (95% CI, 1.12-1.38) in the same microregions, respectively. There was an increased COPD mortality risk in the São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro microregions: 17% (95% CI, 1.05-1.31) and 12% (95% CI, 1,02-1,23), respectively, due to moderate heat, and 23% (95% CI, 1,09-1,38) and 32% (95% CI, 1,15-1,50) due to extreme heat. Conclusions: Non-optimal air temperature events were associated with an increased risk of death from COPD in tropical and subtropical areas of Brazil.","PeriodicalId":14845,"journal":{"name":"Jornal Brasileiro De Pneumologia","volume":"88 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Effects of air temperature on the risk of death from COPD in major microregions in Brazil: a time series study\",\"authors\":\"Igor Magaton Ribas1, João Pedro Medeiros Gomes¹, Pedro Augusto Rosa Valadares¹, Lucas Santos Jardim¹, Mário Círio Nogueira¹, Cássia de Castro Martins Ferreira2, William Cossich Marcial de Farias3, Letícia de Castro Martins Ferreira1\",\"doi\":\"10.36416/1806-3756/e20220442\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Objective: To evaluate the association between the risk of death from COPD and air temperature events in ten major Brazilian microregions. Methods: This was a time series analysis of daily COPD deaths and daily mean air temperatures between 1996 and 2017. Using distributed nonlinear lag models, we estimated the cumulative relative risks of COPD mortality for four temperature percentiles (representing moderate and extreme cold and heat events) in relation to a minimum mortality temperature, with a lag of 21 days, in each microregion. Results: Significant associations were found between extreme air temperature events and the risk of death from COPD in the southern and southeastern microregions in Brazil. There was an association of extreme cold and an increased mortality risk in the following microregions: 36% (95% CI, 1.12-1.65), in Porto Alegre; 27% (95% CI, 1.03-1.58), in Curitiba; and 34% (95% CI, 1.19-1.52), in São Paulo; whereas moderate cold was associated with an increased risk of 20% (95% CI, 1.01-1.41), 33% (95% CI, 1.09-1.62), and 24% (95% CI, 1.12-1.38) in the same microregions, respectively. There was an increased COPD mortality risk in the São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro microregions: 17% (95% CI, 1.05-1.31) and 12% (95% CI, 1,02-1,23), respectively, due to moderate heat, and 23% (95% CI, 1,09-1,38) and 32% (95% CI, 1,15-1,50) due to extreme heat. Conclusions: Non-optimal air temperature events were associated with an increased risk of death from COPD in tropical and subtropical areas of Brazil.\",\"PeriodicalId\":14845,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Jornal Brasileiro De Pneumologia\",\"volume\":\"88 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-10-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Jornal Brasileiro De Pneumologia\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.36416/1806-3756/e20220442\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"RESPIRATORY SYSTEM\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Jornal Brasileiro De Pneumologia","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.36416/1806-3756/e20220442","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"RESPIRATORY SYSTEM","Score":null,"Total":0}
Effects of air temperature on the risk of death from COPD in major microregions in Brazil: a time series study
Objective: To evaluate the association between the risk of death from COPD and air temperature events in ten major Brazilian microregions. Methods: This was a time series analysis of daily COPD deaths and daily mean air temperatures between 1996 and 2017. Using distributed nonlinear lag models, we estimated the cumulative relative risks of COPD mortality for four temperature percentiles (representing moderate and extreme cold and heat events) in relation to a minimum mortality temperature, with a lag of 21 days, in each microregion. Results: Significant associations were found between extreme air temperature events and the risk of death from COPD in the southern and southeastern microregions in Brazil. There was an association of extreme cold and an increased mortality risk in the following microregions: 36% (95% CI, 1.12-1.65), in Porto Alegre; 27% (95% CI, 1.03-1.58), in Curitiba; and 34% (95% CI, 1.19-1.52), in São Paulo; whereas moderate cold was associated with an increased risk of 20% (95% CI, 1.01-1.41), 33% (95% CI, 1.09-1.62), and 24% (95% CI, 1.12-1.38) in the same microregions, respectively. There was an increased COPD mortality risk in the São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro microregions: 17% (95% CI, 1.05-1.31) and 12% (95% CI, 1,02-1,23), respectively, due to moderate heat, and 23% (95% CI, 1,09-1,38) and 32% (95% CI, 1,15-1,50) due to extreme heat. Conclusions: Non-optimal air temperature events were associated with an increased risk of death from COPD in tropical and subtropical areas of Brazil.
期刊介绍:
The Brazilian Journal of Pulmonology publishes scientific articles that contribute to the improvement of knowledge in the field of the lung diseases and related areas.