基于事件时间重采样和高斯混合模型的卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带全缘破裂重现的统计表征

IF 4 3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Katsuichiro Goda
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于地质资料的缺乏和测年技术的不准确性,大型俯冲事件的地震发生模型具有很大的不确定性。以往对卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带全缘断裂统计建模的研究试图解决这些问题。然而,考虑到卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带海相浊积岩年龄数据的不确定性,采用的重采样方法在样本量上是不够的。本研究提出了一种基于高斯混合模型的统计方法,应用于显著较大的重采样Cascadia年龄数据。结果表明,3分量高斯混合模型在捕获长间隙和短期聚类方面优于2分量高斯混合模型和1分量更新模型。所建立的高斯混合模型非常适合应用于概率地震和海啸灾害分析,以及考虑到自上次事件发生以来的时间,计算未来全缘卡斯卡迪亚事件的长期概率。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Statistical characterization of full-margin rupture recurrence for Cascadia subduction zone using event time resampling and Gaussian mixture model
Abstract Earthquake occurrence modeling of large subduction events involves significant uncertainty, stemming from the scarcity of geological data and inaccuracy of dating techniques. The previous research on statistical modeling of full-margin ruptures of the Cascadia subduction zone attempted to address these issues. However, the adopted resampling method to account for the uncertain marine turbidite age data from the Cascadia subduction zone was not sufficient in the sample size. This study presents a statistical approach based on the Gaussian mixture model applied to significantly larger resampled Cascadia age data. The results suggest that the 3-component Gaussian mixture model outperforms the 2-component Gaussian mixture model and the 1-component renewal models by capturing the long gap and short-term clustering. The developed Gaussian mixture model is well suited to apply to probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis and the calculation of long-term probability of the future full-margin Cascadia events by considering the elapsed time since the last event.
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来源期刊
Geoscience Letters
Geoscience Letters Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
2.50%
发文量
42
审稿时长
25 weeks
期刊介绍: Geoscience Letters is the official journal of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, and a fully open access journal published under the SpringerOpen brand. The journal publishes original, innovative and timely research letter articles and concise reviews on studies of the Earth and its environment, the planetary and space sciences. Contributions reflect the eight scientific sections of the AOGS: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeosciences, Hydrological Sciences, Interdisciplinary Geosciences, Ocean Sciences, Planetary Sciences, Solar and Terrestrial Sciences, and Solid Earth Sciences. Geoscience Letters focuses on cutting-edge fundamental and applied research in the broad field of the geosciences, including the applications of geoscience research to societal problems. This journal is Open Access, providing rapid electronic publication of high-quality, peer-reviewed scientific contributions.
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