跟踪注意力不集中

IF 3.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of the European Economic Association Pub Date : 2023-03-23 DOI:10.1093/jeea/jvad022

Nathan Goldstein

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要:本研究提出了一种基于微观数据的注意力不集中实时估计方法。我展示了一个简单的规范，估计预测者偏离平均值的持久性，根据突出的期望模型，提供了对信息摩擦参数的直接估计。新的估计也可以解释为信息摩擦和行为摩擦的混合测量。使用新的规范，我修改了以前文献中记录的几个关键发现。我发现了更高层次的注意力不集中，并记录了随着时间的推移，不同变量、视野、个体和代理类型的新形式的变化。我还报告了长期预测的新结果，并记录了对COVID-19的前所未有的反应。

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Tracking Inattention

Abstract This study proposes a real-time estimate of inattention, based on micro-level data. I show that a simple specification that estimates the persistence of a forecaster's deviation from the mean provides a direct estimate of parameters of information frictions according to prominent models of expectations. The new estimate can also be interpreted as a hybrid measure of both information frictions and behavioral frictions. Using the new specification, I revise several key findings documented in the previous literature. I find higher levels of inattention and document new forms of variations over time and across variables, horizons, individuals, and types of agents. I also report new results from long-run forecasts and document an unprecedented response to COVID-19.

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来源期刊

Journal of the European Economic Association ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

7.80

自引率

2.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： Journal of the European Economic Association replaces the European Economic Review as the official journal of the association. JEEA publishes articles of the highest scientific quality and is an outlet for theoretical and empirical work with global relevance. The journal is committed to promoting the ambitions of the EEA: the development and application of economics as a science, as well as the communication and exchange between teachers, researchers and students in economics.