On Surprises, Strategy, the Economy and What Comes Next for Scottish Independence

Abstract Nicola Sturgeon's resignation as First Minister and leader of the SNP has thrown Scottish politics into flux. But beneath the superficial media coverage and frenetic party politics that followed her resignation, the fundamentals of the constitutional debate remain unaltered. One of these fundamentals, the extent to which Scotland is better or worse off being part of the UK political economy, is rarely debated in the depth it deserves. The parlous state of the UK economy and, in particular, the deeply entrenched territorial inequality that results from its extreme core‐periphery structure that safeguards the economic dominance of London and South East England, holds the potential for a surprise shift in the debate over independence to emerge.