投票率逆转:少数族裔的胜利动员了白人选民

IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE
STEPHANIE ZONSZEIN, GUY GROSSMAN
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在美国、英国和德国等西方民主国家,少数民族代表的数量一直在稳步增加。这种趋势是如何影响选举行为的?过去的研究主要集中在少数民族代表权对少数民族政治参与的影响上,而对多数群体成员的选举行为关注较少。我们认为,少数族裔代表人数的增加可能被视为对历史上白人占主导地位的政治背景的威胁。这反过来又在政治上激活了白人选民。利用四次英国大选的数据和回归不连续设计,我们发现少数民族候选人在下次选举中险胜的选区的投票率比白人候选人险胜的选区高4.3个百分点。与我们的论点一致,这种投票率差异是由白人占多数的选区造成的。我们的研究结果对群体间关系和政党政治具有启示意义,并有助于解释最近的政治动态。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Turnout Turnaround: Ethnic Minority Victories Mobilize White Voters
In Western democracies, like the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, the number of ethnic minority representatives has been steadily increasing. How is this trend shaping electoral behavior? Past work has focused on the effects of minority representation on ethnic minorities’ political engagement, with less attention to the electoral behavior of majority-group members. We argue that increased minorities’ representation can be experienced as a threat to a historically white-dominant political context. This, in turn, politically activates white constituents. Using data from four U.K. general elections and a regression discontinuity design, we find that the next election’s turnout in constituencies narrowly won by an ethnic minority candidate is 4.3 percentage points larger than in constituencies narrowly won by a white candidate. Consistent with our argument, this turnout difference is driven by majority-white constituencies. Our findings have implications for intergroup relations and party politics and help explain recent political dynamics.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
9.80
自引率
5.90%
发文量
119
期刊介绍: American Political Science Review is political science''s premier scholarly research journal, providing peer-reviewed articles and review essays from subfields throughout the discipline. Areas covered include political theory, American politics, public policy, public administration, comparative politics, and international relations. APSR has published continuously since 1906. American Political Science Review is sold ONLY as part of a joint subscription with Perspectives on Politics and PS: Political Science & Politics.
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