英国脱欧的不确定性及其(非)服务效应

IF 5.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Journal-Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI:10.1257/pol.20200808

Saad Ahmad, Nuno Limão, Sarah Oliver, Serge Shikher

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们估计了英国脱欧增加的政策不确定性对英国服务贸易的影响。我们将不确定性增强的重力方程应用于2016年1月至2018年4月期间英国与欧盟的服务贸易。通过利用预测市场与服务业新的贸易政策风险指标相互作用的英国脱欧概率的变化，我们确定了英国脱欧威胁对贸易价值和参与的重大负面影响。在此期间，英国脱欧的可能性增加，使服务出口至少下降了20个对数点。(凝胶f13, f14, f15)

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Brexit Uncertainty and Its (Dis)Service Effects

We estimate the impact of increased policy uncertainty from Brexit on UK trade in services. We apply an uncertainty-augmented gravity equation to UK services trade with the European Union at the industry level from 2016:I to 2018:IV. By exploiting the variation in the probability of Brexit from prediction markets interacted with a new trade policy risk measure across service industries, we identify a significant negative impact of the threat of Brexit on trade values and participation. The increased probability of Brexit in this period lowered services exports by at least 20 log points. (JEL F13, F14, F15)

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来源期刊

American Economic Journal-Economic Policy ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

8.20

自引率

1.90%

发文量

期刊介绍： The American Economic Review (AER) is a general-interest economics journal. The journal publishes 12 issues containing articles on a broad range of topics. Established in 1911, the AER is among the nation's oldest and most respected scholarly journals in economics. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy publishes papers covering a range of topics, the common theme being the role of economic policy in economic outcomes. Subject areas include public economics; urban and regional economics; public policy aspects of health, education, welfare and political institutions; law and economics; economic regulation; and environmental and natural resource economics.