大蒜进口量对大蒜的零售价格的影响

Ulfathul Arzia, Riyanto Riyanto
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2011年至2020年,印尼政府一直在进口大蒜,因为国内产量仅能满足人们约3%至5%的需求。由于进口政策,国内市场的进口大蒜供应量增加,预计将降低大蒜零售价格。本研究旨在探讨印尼大蒜进口量对大蒜零售价格的影响。利用2011年1月- 2020年12月的月度数据,采用分布式滞后模型(DL-Model)和矢量误差修正模型(VECM),研究表明大蒜进口量的影响在进口实施一个月后开始降低大蒜零售价格。在进口实施6个月后,效果仍然显著。这些结果表明,在一个月内(短期),进口大蒜的政策未能影响大蒜的零售价格。但从长期来看(1个月至6个月后),大蒜进口政策对大蒜零售价格的下降影响较大。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Pengaruh Volume Impor Bawang Putih Terhadap Harga Eceran Bawang Putih di Indonesia
Garlic import has been carried out by Indonesian government in 2011-2020 because domestic production is only sufficient for about three to five percent of people’s needs. The addition supply of imported garlic in domestic market due to the import policy is expected to reduce garlic retail price. This study aims to examine the effect of garlic import volume on garlic retail price in Indonesia. By using Distributed Lag Model (DL-Model) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) with monthly data for Januari 2011 – December 2020, this study shows that the effect of garlic imports volume begins to reduce the retail price of garlic after one month of import implementation. The effect continues to be significant up to 6 months after the import implementation. These results indicate, within a period of one month (short term), the policy of importing garlic has not been able to affect the retail price of garlic. However, in the long term (after one month to 6 months), the policy of importing garlic significantly affects the decline in retail prices of garlic.
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