The analysis of the main contributing factors for the increasing trend of Diabetes Type 2, diabetes morbidity and mortality trends in England, 2017-2022.

Background and aim: Diabetes Type 2 is a non-communicable disease which is characterized by chronic hyperglycaemia and disruption of metabolism. A poor management of diabetes leads to serious cardiovascular and neural complications. The prevalence of Diabetes Type 2 is increasing globally; in the United Kingdom, the number of people living with a diabetes increased by more than 100,000 from 2018 to 20191. In 2019, 3,9 million people had diagnosis of diabetes, and predictions are that this number will increase to 5,3 million in 2025. The aim of this research is to examine the main contributing factors and their influence on the prevalence of Diabetes Type 2 among people aged 17+ in England based on the routine epidemiological data for 2017-2022 years. Additionally, this research will analyze trends for hospital admissions with the diagnosis of Diabetes Type 2 and diabetes mortality statistics. Methods: The Pearson’s and the Spearman’s correlation analyses are used to investigate possible associations, their strength, monotonicity and direction between the prevalence of diabetes, deprivation, low physical activity, obesity and density of fast food outlets. Stratified random sampling of 153 England counties & unitary authorities (the division of 2017) are used for the statistical analysis. A comparative analysis is used to analyze trends for hospital admissions with the diagnosis Diabetes Type 2 and diabetes mortality statistics. Descriptive statistics and quantitative analysis of secondary routine numerical data collected by the National Health Service Digital, the National Health Survey and the Office for Health Improvement & Disparities is used. Findings: The analysis revealed positive correlations between the prevalence of diabetes and indicators of deprivation, obesity, low physical activity. In general, diabetes, obesity and physically inactive adults are more prevalent in counties with higher deprivation score. The strong positive correlation was found between density of fast food outlets and deprivation; the analysis of mean values indicated a positive linear relationships between obesity, diabetes indicators and density of fast food outlets. The comparative analysis revealed an upward trend for both, hospital admissions with the diagnosis Diabetes Type 2 and diabetes mortality. Conclusion: In conclusion, analysis based on 80 counties & unitary authorities of England indicated that the main contributing factors for the increasing trend of Diabetes Type 2 can be the increasing prevalence of overweight and obese adults, low physical activity and deprivation. Additionally, the analysis demonstrated that the availability and abundance of fast food outlets, especially in more deprived deciles of England are closely associated with obesity and indirectly with the prevalence of Diabetes Type 2. Additionally, an increasing trend in the prevalence of Diabetes Type 2 is accompanied by a similar growth of hospital admissions with the diagnosis of Diabetes Type 2 and diabetes mortality.