Heterogeneity in Temporal Dynamics of Pain and Affect Among Individuals With Chronic Back Pain and Associations With Risk for Future Opioid-Related Problems

Chronic low back pain (CLBP) is a biopsychosocial phenomenon involving complex relationships between pain and psychosocial factors. In preregistered analyses, we examined dynamic relationships between pain and negative affect among individuals with CLBP ( N = 87). We found that increased negative affect was concurrently and prospectively associated with increased pain for individuals on average. However, there was significant and meaningful between-persons variability in these effects such that risk for future opioid-related problems was positively associated with the within-persons correlation between pain and negative affect (β = 0.290, 95% credible interval [CI] = [0.071, 0.485]), the degree to which pain predicted increased negative affect (β = 0.439, 95% CI = [0.044, 0.717]), and the autoregressive effect of negative affect over 4-hr lags (β = 0.255, 95% CI = [0.007, 0.478]). These results suggest that variability in within-persons symptom dynamics may help identify chronic pain patients who are at greater risk of opioid-related problems.