What future for organic farming? Foresight for a smallholder Mediterranean agricultural system

Abstract This study aims to foresee the future of organic farming in the smallholder agricultural systems of the Valencian Region (Spain), as well as to identify how different drivers of change may affect such a future. To do so, two qualitative methodologies were combined: The Delphi method and the participatory scenario development. The results estimate an upward trend for organic farming area and sales, which would contribute to a greener and more sustainable economy in the region, a slight drop in organic versus conventional food prices, the entrance of large operators and a “dualisation” of the models of production and consumption of organic food. The key role that the public sector plays for the future of organic farming is underlined by the stakeholders, who suggest that the civil society may counterbalance the lack of public support by way of collective action and an increasing awareness about health and sustainability. This study concludes by highlighting the main findings obtained, both regarding the expected evolution of organic agriculture in the region and the key factors that would influence such evolution, emphasising the applicability of the results to other similar smallholder Mediterranean farming systems.