基于基础设施负荷复杂预测模型的运输质量提升

E.V. MALOVETSKAYA, A.K. MOZALEVSKAYA
{"title":"基于基础设施负荷复杂预测模型的运输质量提升","authors":"E.V. MALOVETSKAYA, A.K. MOZALEVSKAYA","doi":"10.36724/2072-8735-2023-17-7-38-46","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Accurate construction of time series forecasts is a key element in the system of support and management decision-making. This article presents a method of multi-stage system forecasting of time series. The effectiveness of the proposed method is experimentally justified by the example of the arrival of car traffic at the junction points of railways. The most important contribution is the introduction of a system forecast, in which the methods of forecasting traffic flows will be mutually consistent and complementary, since the use of statistical methods alone will not fully reflect all the changes that occur in the transport complex of the Russian Federation. This hybrid combination provides more competitive forecasts compared to other methods. Moreover, such a hybrid model is easier to interpret by decision makers when modeling trend series.","PeriodicalId":263691,"journal":{"name":"T-Comm","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF TRANSPORTATION BASED ON THE CONSTRUCTION OF COMPLEX PREDICTIVE MODELS OF INFRASTRUCTURE LOADING\",\"authors\":\"E.V. MALOVETSKAYA, A.K. MOZALEVSKAYA\",\"doi\":\"10.36724/2072-8735-2023-17-7-38-46\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Accurate construction of time series forecasts is a key element in the system of support and management decision-making. This article presents a method of multi-stage system forecasting of time series. The effectiveness of the proposed method is experimentally justified by the example of the arrival of car traffic at the junction points of railways. The most important contribution is the introduction of a system forecast, in which the methods of forecasting traffic flows will be mutually consistent and complementary, since the use of statistical methods alone will not fully reflect all the changes that occur in the transport complex of the Russian Federation. This hybrid combination provides more competitive forecasts compared to other methods. Moreover, such a hybrid model is easier to interpret by decision makers when modeling trend series.\",\"PeriodicalId\":263691,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"T-Comm\",\"volume\":\"3 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"T-Comm\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.36724/2072-8735-2023-17-7-38-46\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"T-Comm","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.36724/2072-8735-2023-17-7-38-46","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

时间序列预测的准确构建是支持和管理决策系统的关键要素。提出了一种时间序列的多阶段系统预测方法。以铁路交叉口车辆到达为例,验证了该方法的有效性。最重要的贡献是采用了系统预测,其中预测交通流量的方法将是相互一致和互补的,因为仅使用统计方法将不能充分反映俄罗斯联邦运输综合体中发生的所有变化。与其他方法相比,这种混合组合提供了更具竞争力的预测。此外,这种混合模型在对趋势序列建模时更容易被决策者解释。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF TRANSPORTATION BASED ON THE CONSTRUCTION OF COMPLEX PREDICTIVE MODELS OF INFRASTRUCTURE LOADING
Accurate construction of time series forecasts is a key element in the system of support and management decision-making. This article presents a method of multi-stage system forecasting of time series. The effectiveness of the proposed method is experimentally justified by the example of the arrival of car traffic at the junction points of railways. The most important contribution is the introduction of a system forecast, in which the methods of forecasting traffic flows will be mutually consistent and complementary, since the use of statistical methods alone will not fully reflect all the changes that occur in the transport complex of the Russian Federation. This hybrid combination provides more competitive forecasts compared to other methods. Moreover, such a hybrid model is easier to interpret by decision makers when modeling trend series.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信