Future Presence of an Invasive Grass in the Caribbean: Modeling Potential Distribution of Cenchrus ciliaris L. (Buffelgrass) in Puerto Rico

Invasive plants can cause drastic changes in their new ecosystems, and these changes might depend also on future climatic conditions. Buffelgrass is an African C4 bunchgrass that has been introduced outside its native range for rangeland improvement and livestock feed. In the Caribbean region, it has been introduced to supplement managed pasturelands and can have an effect on the surviving native flora. To determine the potential range where these populations might be present in tropical dry forest biomes in the next decades, we ran species distribution models for the Puerto Rican bank. We found that buffelgrass will remain present in the tropical dry forest biome of the main island of Puerto Rico as well as nearby islands with equal or greater biodiversity refuges. With the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases, more areas of Puerto Rico's coasts and nearby islands will become suitable habitat for this invasive grass. Those areas should be actively monitored for control and removal of this invasive grass.