养老金和生育率:微观经济证据

IF 5.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Journal-Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI:10.1257/pol.20200440

Alexander M. Danzer, Lennard Zyska

{"title":"养老金和生育率:微观经济证据","authors":"Alexander M. Danzer, Lennard Zyska","doi":"10.1257/pol.20200440","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women’s fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil’s expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Difference-in-difference, instrumental variable, and event study methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women of fertile age by 8 percent in the short run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the pay-as-you-go long run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women, and among mothers with sons. (JEL H55, I38, J13, J16, O15)","PeriodicalId":48093,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Pensions and Fertility: Microeconomic Evidence\",\"authors\":\"Alexander M. Danzer, Lennard Zyska\",\"doi\":\"10.1257/pol.20200440\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women’s fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil’s expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Difference-in-difference, instrumental variable, and event study methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women of fertile age by 8 percent in the short run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the pay-as-you-go long run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women, and among mothers with sons. (JEL H55, I38, J13, J16, O15)\",\"PeriodicalId\":48093,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy\",\"volume\":\"29 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-05-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200440\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"American Economic Journal-Economic Policy","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200440","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究确定了养老金慷慨对女性生育行为的因果影响。它利用了巴西将养老金制度扩大到农村工人的做法，后者的养老金财富随后增加了两倍多。差异中差异、工具变量和事件研究方法表明，养老金改革在短期内使育龄妇女的生育倾向降低了8%。在改革后的20年内，已完成生育率下降了1.3个孩子，降低了现收现付制的长期缴费基数。生育反应在高出生率、高龄妇女和有儿子的母亲中最为强烈。(j55, j38, j13, j16, j15)

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Pensions and Fertility: Microeconomic Evidence

This study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women’s fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil’s expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Difference-in-difference, instrumental variable, and event study methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women of fertile age by 8 percent in the short run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the pay-as-you-go long run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women, and among mothers with sons. (JEL H55, I38, J13, J16, O15)

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

American Economic Journal-Economic Policy ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

8.20

自引率

1.90%

发文量

期刊介绍： The American Economic Review (AER) is a general-interest economics journal. The journal publishes 12 issues containing articles on a broad range of topics. Established in 1911, the AER is among the nation's oldest and most respected scholarly journals in economics. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy publishes papers covering a range of topics, the common theme being the role of economic policy in economic outcomes. Subject areas include public economics; urban and regional economics; public policy aspects of health, education, welfare and political institutions; law and economics; economic regulation; and environmental and natural resource economics.