Optimization of tertiary building passive parameters by forecasting energy consumption based on artificial intelligence models and using ANOVA variance analysis method

Energy consumption in the tertial sector is largely attributed to cooling/heating energy consumption. Thus, forecasting the building's energy consumption has become a key factor in long-term decision-making, reducing the huge energy demand and future planning. This manuscript outlines to use of the variance analysis method (ANOVA) to study the building's passive parameters' effect, such as the orientation, insulation, and its thickness plus the glazing on energy savings through the forecasting of the heating/cooling energy consumption by applying the Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models. The presented methodology compares the predicted consumed energy of a baseline building with another efficient building which includes all the passive parameters selected by the ANOVA approach. The results show that the improvement of passive parameters leads to a reduction of heating energy consumption by 1,739,640 kWh from 2021 to 2029, which is equivalent to a monthly energy consumption of 181.2 kWh for an administrative building with an area of 415 m². While the cooling energy consumption is diminished by 893,246 kWh from 2021 to 2029, which leads to save a monthly value of 93.05 kWh. Consequently, the passive parameters optimization efficiently reduces the consumed energy and minimizes its costs. This positively impacts our environment due to the reduction of gas emissions, air and soil pollution.