运用“投入-产出”模型研究国民经济运行效率

Viktor О. Dilenko, Kostiantyn S. Sokolov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文的目的是用“投入-产出”经济数学模型的方法确定国民经济运行效率的指标,并对其进行比较分析。该出版物分配了两种主要方法来评估和分析使用上述模型的经济系统的运作效率。根据第一种方法,将V. Leontiev模型的技术矩阵的Frobenius数作为效率(生产率、成本)的指标。另一种方法是利用直接和总材料成本系数矩阵的有关元素来建立业绩指标。通过数值算例表明,使用Frobenius数的性能指标对于技术矩阵元素值的某些变化可能给出不正确的结果。这种情况使人们怀疑,根据列昂蒂耶夫的模型对产品生产和分配的宏观系统的功能进行描述,在经济和数学分析中使用这些指标的可能性。基于“投入-产出”模型主要矩阵要素的效率指标动态分析,以及2012-2020年国民经济GDP增长率指标,表明乌克兰经济规模在这一时期的变化过程与其运作效率没有直接关系,主要由简单的比例决定。可以在使用“投入-产出”模型的经济和数学工具的方向上进行进一步的研究,以形成提高有关经济系统运作效率的建议,以及对乌克兰经济动态特征进行更详细的分析。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Study of the Efficiency of Functioning of the National Economy Using the Tools of the «Input – Output» Model
The aim of the article is to determine the indicators of efficiency of functioning of the national economy by the methods based on the economic-mathematical model of «input – output», and to conduct their comparative analysis. The publication allocates two main approaches to assessing and analyzing the efficiency of functioning of economic systems that use the above mentioned model. According to the first of them, the Frobenius number of the technological matrix of V. Leontiev’s model is considered as an indicator of efficiency (productivity, cost). Another approach uses the relevant elements of the matrices of the coefficients of direct and total material costs to build performance indicators. By demonstrating numerical examples, it is shown that performance indicators using Frobenius numbers can give incorrect results for some changes in the values of the elements of the technological matrix. This circumstance casts doubt on the possibility of using such indicators in the economic and mathematical analysis of macrosystems of production and distribution of products under the description of their functioning by V. Leontiev’s models. The carried out analysis of the dynamics of efficiency indicators, which are based on the elements of the main matrices of the «input – output» model, and the GDP growth rate indicator, calculated for the national economy in 2012–2020, shows that the processes of change in the size of the Ukrainian economy in this period are not directly related to the efficiency of its functioning and are determined mainly by simple scaling. Further research can be developed in the direction of using the economic and mathematical apparatus of the «input – output» models to form recommendations for improving the efficiency of the functioning of the relevant economic systems, as well as a more detailed analysis of the features of the dynamics of the Ukrainian economy.
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