基于RCP 4.5情景的婆罗洲干旱潜力

IF 1 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmosfera Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI:10.20937/atm.53185

Amalia Nurlatifah, Fildzah Adany, Aulia Darojatun, Bambang Siswanto, Sinta Berliana Sipayung

{"title":"基于RCP 4.5情景的婆罗洲干旱潜力","authors":"Amalia Nurlatifah, Fildzah Adany, Aulia Darojatun, Bambang Siswanto, Sinta Berliana Sipayung","doi":"10.20937/atm.53185","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"One of the impacts of climate change is an increase in the frequency and intensity of hydrometeorological disasters such as prolonged droughts. Borneo is one of the areas threatened by drought due to climate change. Therefore, it is important to identify and implement appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures. This study used the dynamical downscaling method by the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) to evaluate the potential for drought events in Borneo based on the RCP 4.5 scenario. The annual rainfall in Borneo for 2021-2050 is projected to increase compared to 1991-2020. However, the increase in annual rainfall does not free Borneo from the possibility of drought events in the future. This study’s results indicate that areas in southern Borneo, such as Banjarmasin, Pangkalan Bun, and Pontianak, will have a higher frequency of meteorological drought events and are also expected to experience longer periods of consecutive dry days between 2021-2050 compared to 1991-2020.","PeriodicalId":55576,"journal":{"name":"Atmosfera","volume":"04 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Drought Potential in Borneo Based on the RCP 4.5 Scenario\",\"authors\":\"Amalia Nurlatifah, Fildzah Adany, Aulia Darojatun, Bambang Siswanto, Sinta Berliana Sipayung\",\"doi\":\"10.20937/atm.53185\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"One of the impacts of climate change is an increase in the frequency and intensity of hydrometeorological disasters such as prolonged droughts. Borneo is one of the areas threatened by drought due to climate change. Therefore, it is important to identify and implement appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures. This study used the dynamical downscaling method by the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) to evaluate the potential for drought events in Borneo based on the RCP 4.5 scenario. The annual rainfall in Borneo for 2021-2050 is projected to increase compared to 1991-2020. However, the increase in annual rainfall does not free Borneo from the possibility of drought events in the future. This study’s results indicate that areas in southern Borneo, such as Banjarmasin, Pangkalan Bun, and Pontianak, will have a higher frequency of meteorological drought events and are also expected to experience longer periods of consecutive dry days between 2021-2050 compared to 1991-2020.\",\"PeriodicalId\":55576,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Atmosfera\",\"volume\":\"04 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-08-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Atmosfera\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53185\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Atmosfera","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53185","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化的影响之一是水文气象灾害的频率和强度增加，例如长期干旱。婆罗洲是由于气候变化而受到干旱威胁的地区之一。因此，必须确定和实施适当的缓解和适应措施。本研究采用共形立方大气模式(CCAM)的动态降尺度方法，基于RCP 4.5情景对婆罗洲干旱事件的可能性进行了评估。预计2021-2050年婆罗洲的年降雨量将比1991-2020年有所增加。然而，年降雨量的增加并不能使婆罗洲免于未来发生干旱事件的可能性。这项研究的结果表明，与1991-2020年相比，2021-2050年期间，婆罗洲南部地区，如Banjarmasin、Pangkalan Bun和Pontianak将有更高频率的气象干旱事件，并且预计将经历更长的连续干旱天数。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Drought Potential in Borneo Based on the RCP 4.5 Scenario

One of the impacts of climate change is an increase in the frequency and intensity of hydrometeorological disasters such as prolonged droughts. Borneo is one of the areas threatened by drought due to climate change. Therefore, it is important to identify and implement appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures. This study used the dynamical downscaling method by the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) to evaluate the potential for drought events in Borneo based on the RCP 4.5 scenario. The annual rainfall in Borneo for 2021-2050 is projected to increase compared to 1991-2020. However, the increase in annual rainfall does not free Borneo from the possibility of drought events in the future. This study’s results indicate that areas in southern Borneo, such as Banjarmasin, Pangkalan Bun, and Pontianak, will have a higher frequency of meteorological drought events and are also expected to experience longer periods of consecutive dry days between 2021-2050 compared to 1991-2020.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Atmosfera 地学-气象与大气科学

CiteScore

2.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： ATMÓSFERA seeks contributions on theoretical, basic, empirical and applied research in all the areas of atmospheric sciences, with emphasis on meteorology, climatology, aeronomy, physics, chemistry, and aerobiology. Interdisciplinary contributions are also accepted; especially those related with oceanography, hydrology, climate variability and change, ecology, forestry, glaciology, agriculture, environmental pollution, and other topics related to economy and society as they are affected by atmospheric hazards.