A conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to power grids

Abstract. Flood damage assessment is a critical aspect in any decision-making process on flood risk management. For this reason, reliable tools for flood damage estimation are required for all the categories of exposed elements. Despite infrastructures can suffer high economic losses in case of flood, compared to other exposed sectors, their flood damage modelling is still a challenging task. This is due, on the one hand, to the structural and dynamic complexity of infrastructure networks, and, on the other hand, to the lack of knowledge and data to investigate damage mechanisms and to calibrate and validate damage models. Grounding on the investigation of the state-of-the-art, this paper presents a conceptualization of flood damage to power grids and reviews the methodologies in the field for an in-depth understanding of the existing modelling approaches, challenges, and limitations. The conceptual model highlights: (i) the different kinds of damage (i.e., direct, indirect, and systemic) the network can suffer, (ii) the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability parameters on which they depend, (iii) the spatial and temporal scales required for their assessment, (iv) the interconnections among power grids and economic activities, and (v) the different recipients of economic losses. The development of the model stresses the importance of dividing the damage assessment into two steps: the estimation of damage in physical units and the consequent economic losses in monetary terms. The variety of damage mechanisms and cascading effects shaping the final damage figure arises, asking for an interdisciplinary and multi-scale evaluation approach. The ultimate objective of the conceptual model is to be an operative tool in support of more comprehensive and reliable flood damage assessments to power grids.