结构性改革促进新兴市场和发展中经济体增长,缓解政策权衡,支持绿色转型

Nina Budina
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引用次数: 1

摘要

在2019冠状病毒病大流行之后,新兴市场和发展中经济体正在努力应对经济创伤、社会紧张和政策空间缩小等问题。目前迫切需要采取政策行动,在短期内促进增长,并支持正在进行的绿色转型。与此同时,高企的公共债务和持续高企的通胀限制了政策空间,带来了艰难的政策权衡。这份工作人员讨论报告以新兴市场和发展中经济体为重点,提出了宏观结构改革的优先顺序、包装和排序框架,以加速增长、减轻政策权衡和支持绿色转型。该报告显示,优先消除对经济活动最具约束力的约束,捆绑改革(治理、商业放松管制和外部部门改革),以及其他改革(如劳动力市场和信贷部门改革)的适当顺序,可以帮助先期实现改革成果。在初始结构性缺口较大的新兴市场和发展中经济体,这一重大改革方案的产出效应估计相当可观——两年内约为4%,四年内约为8%。随着时间的推移,实现更高的增长和更低的绝对碳排放需要一个精心设计的战略,其中包括宏观结构和绿色改革。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Structural Reforms to Accelerate Growth, Ease Policy Trade-offs, and Support the Green Transition in Emerging Market and Developing Economies
In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, emerging market and developing economies are grappling with economic scarring, social tension, and reduced policy space. Policy actions are already urgently needed to boost growth in the near term and support the ongoing green transition. At the same time, high public debt and persistently high inflation have constrained policy space, posing difficult policy trade-offs. This Staff Discussion Note focuses on emerging market and developing economies and proposes a framework for prioritization, packaging, and sequencing of macrostructural reforms to accelerate growth, alleviate policy trade-offs, and support the green transition. The note shows that prioritizing the removal of the most binding constraints on economic activity, bundling reforms (governance, business deregulation, and external sector reforms), and appropriate sequencing of other reforms (such as labor market and credit sector reforms) can help front-load reform gains. In emerging market and developing economies with large initial structural gaps, the estimated output effects of such a major reform package are sizable—about 4 percent in two years and 8 percent in four years. Achieving higher growth and lower absolute carbon emissions over time requires a well-designed strategy that includes both macrostructural and green reforms.
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